The purpose of this article is to investigate fiscal sustainability in Ukraine, using quarterly data sample for the period between 2000 and 2016, in accordance with a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio developed by Croce and Juan-Ramon (2003). Research Design & Methods: An assessment of fiscal sustainability in Ukraine is provided according to a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debtto-GDP ratio, developed by Croce and Juan-Ramon (2003). Both time-varying parameters (TVP) and vector error-correction autoregression (VAR/VEC) models are used. Findings: It is found that there is causality running from the budget surplus to the gap between real interest rate and GDP growth rate, however it is not sufficient to guarantee a sustainable debt to GDP ratio. Implications & Recommendations: Our findings argue in favour of fiscal policy actions aimed at an increase in the government revenues, combined with the public sector expenditure cuts, as current policies do not seem to be sufficient to achieve fiscal sustainability. A more detailed study is needed in order to identify most efficient approaches for a decrease in the budget deficit across a detailed 'menu' of expenditure and revenues. Any attempts to decrease interest rate and/or stimulate output growth by an expansionary monetary stance are likely to be counterproductive in the presence of substantial public external debt. Contribution & Value Added: This empirical study provides an indication of the possibility of default on foreign public debt liabilities in Ukraine. Article type: research paper

This paper empirically analyses fiscal policy effects in Ukraine using different identification strategies within the framework of a vector error correction model (VECM). For quarterly data from 2001 to 2016, we find a robust positive impact of both government expenditure and net revenue upon output in Ukraine, which closely corresponds with the predictions of the Mankiw-Summers model in the case of high demand for money in relation to consumption expenditure combined with significant investment elasticity in relation to the interest rate. In other respects, the fiscal policy transmission mechanism exhibits several standard features (such as an increase in government expenditure after a positive shock to revenue or a widening of the budget deficit following an interest rate hike). The results suggest the feasibility of revenue--based fiscal consolidation policies in Ukraine, as better tax collection may contribute to economic growth even in the short run. Since there is a robust conventional inverse relationship between interest rate and output, one of the puzzling results is that government expenditure puts downward pressure on the former, with net revenues being neutral in this respect. Real exchange rate (RER) depreciation is behind the decrease in output in the baseline model, but alternative identification schemes suggest that it is likely to be contractionary in the short run while turning expansionary in the long run.

This study is aimed at estimation of the exchange rate volatility and its impact on the business cycle fluctuations in four central and eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania). Exchange rate volatility is estimated with the EGARCH(1,1) model. It is found that exchange rate volatility is affected by the components of the Index of Economic Freedom from the Heritage Foundation, besides inflation and crisis developments. The empirical results using GMM estimation technique and comprehensive robustness checks suggest that exchange rate volatility reduces the risk of recession in the Czech Republic while the opposite effect is found for Hungary and Romania, with a neutrality for Poland. These findings continue to hold after controlling for the fiscal and monetary policy indicators. There is evidence that the RER undervaluation prevents sliding into a recession on a credible basis in Poland only, with a neutral stance for other countries. Except in Romania, higher levels of economic freedom is associated with worsening of the cyclical position of output. Among other results, stabilization policies in the recession imply fiscal tightening for the Czech Republic and Romania, higher money supply for the Czech Republic and Poland, and lower central bank reference rate for Hungary.

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