This paper uses a numerical model to examine the long-run impact of a radical liberalization of the West-European natural gas markets. We study profit maximizing Cournot producers facing an ideal third party access regime for gas transport. Producers sell gas either to large users in the manufacturing industry and to gas-fired thermal power plants, or to local distribution companies. We first examine the case where no traders exploit arbitrage possibilities and some producers have limited access to the markets. In this equilibrium net prices differ across markets. These differences disappear in the second case where traders are introduced. The third case focuses on a complete European market for natural gas in which traders exploit all arbitrage possibilities and all producers can sell gas in all markets. We also study the impact on the complete European market of changes in costs for production, transport, and distribution. Finally, welfare implications from a liberalization of the West-European natural gas markets are discussed. We argue that a radical liberalization could increase economic welfare in Western Europe by 15% to 20% in the long run.
With limited participation in an international climate agreement, standard economic analysis suggests that a unilateral action taken by a group of countries in order to reduce its emissions is likely to be undermined by increases in emissions from other countries (carbon leakage). While analyses of carbon leakage typically have regarded the technology in each country as given, abatement technologies are in reality endogenous, and thus technology development may be affected by environmental policies. We demonstrate that with endogenous technologies and technology diffusion between countries, it is no longer obvious that reduced emissions in some countries will increase emissions in other countries. We identify cases in which reduced emissions in some countries might reduce emissions also in other countries.
This paper analyzes how the supply side of the Western European natural gas market may react if the demand side becomes competitive. We show-using a numerical model of the Western European natural gas market-that once the demand side of the market is liberalized, each gasproducing country has an incentive to break up its gas sellers. The model therefore suggests that there may be numerous producers in a liberalized natural gas market. Hence, in a liberalized market consumers will not be exploited by suppliers.
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This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries.
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