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Abstract:We evaluate and compare two common methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), for predicting energy productions from a solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Florida 15 min, 1 h and 24 h ahead of time. A hierarchical approach is proposed based on the machine learning algorithms tested. The production data used in this work corresponds to 15 min averaged power measurements collected from 2014. The accuracy of the model is determined using computing error statistics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative MBE (rMBE), mean percentage error (MPE) and relative RMSE (rRMSE). This work provides findings on how forecasts from individual inverters will improve the total solar power generation forecast of the PV system.

Abstract:With increasing use of photovoltaic (PV) power generation by utilities and their residential customers, the need for accurate intra-hour and day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting has become critical. This paper details the development of a low cost all-sky imaging system and an intra-hour cloud motion prediction methodology that produces minutes-ahead irradiance forecasts. The SkyImager is designed around a Raspberry Pi single board computer (SBC) with a fully programmable, high resolution Pi Camera, housed in a durable all-weather enclosure. Our software is written in Python 2.7 and utilizes the open source computer vision package OpenCV. The SkyImager can be configured for different operational environments and network designs, from a standalone edge computing model to a fully integrated node in a distributed, cloud-computing based micro-grid. Preliminary results are presented using the imager on site at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO, USA during the fall of 2015 under a variety of cloud conditions.

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