The epidemic highlights to horse owners and policy makers the potential for future outbreaks of arboviral diseases and the need for vigilance. It also highlights the complex interactions among hosts, vectors and climatic conditions that are required for such an outbreak to occur.

No abstract

The term “emerging diseases” has been used recently to refer to different scenarios, all of which indicate changes in the dynamics of disease in the population. Of the OIE List A diseases, major changes have been experienced with rinderpest, peste des petit ruminants (PPR), contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), foot‐and‐mouth disease, African swine fever, lumpy skin disease, and Rift Valley fever. Rinderpest represents a success story of the 1990s, thanks to the programs of the Pan African Rinderpest Campaign (PARC). The situation has changed from that of the 1980s when rinderpest was widespread throughout most of Tropical Africa and the Middle East. PPR is a disease that has become of increasing importance throughout Tropical Africa and the Middle East. CBPP, which had previously been reduced to sporadic incidence within endemic areas, invaded new areas, causing heavy mortality. African swine fever has extended to West Africa and to Madagascar, in both regions resulting in heavy losses. Climatic changes in both East and West Africa were associated with an upsurge of Rift Valley fever. Deficiencies in national veterinary services have contributed to failures in early detection and response; in many regions investigation and diagnosis services have deteriorated. The continuing structural adjustment program for national veterinary services will need to take into account their transformation from providers of services (e.g., vaccinations, medicines) to inspection and quality assurance services. Surveillance, early warning, and disease emergency preparedness will need to be pursued more vigorously in Africa and the Middle East as vital components of national veterinary services.

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

Objective: To assess evidence of recent and past exposure to Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and West Nile clade Kunjin virus (KUNV) in residents of the Murray Valley, Victoria, during a period of demonstrated activity of both viruses in early 2011. Methods: A cross‐sectional serosurvey using two convenience samples: stored serum specimens from a diagnostic laboratory in Mildura and blood donors from the Murray Valley region. Specimens were collected between April and July 2011. The main outcome measure was total antibody (IgM and IgG) reactivity against MVEV and KUNV measured using an enzyme immunoassay and defined as inhibiting binding of monoclonal antibodies by >50%, when compared to negative controls. Evidence of recent exposure was measured by the presence of MVEV and KUNV IgM detected by immunofluorescence. Results: Of 1,115 specimens, 24 (2.2%, 95% CI 1.3–3.0%) were positive for MVEV total antibody, and all were negative for MVEV IgM. Of 1,116 specimens, 34 (3.1%, 95% CI 2.0–4.0%) were positive for KUNV total antibody, and 3 (0.27%) were KUNV IgM positive. Total antibody seroprevalence for both viruses was higher in residents born before 1974. Conclusions: Despite widespread MVEV and KUNV activity in early 2011, this study found that seroprevalence of antibodies to both viruses was low (<5%) and little evidence of recent exposure. Implications: Our findings suggest both viruses remain epizootic in the region and local residents remain potentially susceptible to future outbreaks.