This study tested 3 main hypotheses concerning people's predictions of task completion times: (a) People underestimate their own but not others' completion times, (b) people focus on plan-based scenarios rather than on relevant past experiences while generating their predictions, and (c) people's attributions diminish the relevance of past experiences. Results supported each hypothesis. Ss' predictions of their completion times were too optimistic for a variety of academic and nonacademic tasks. Think-aloud procedures revealed that Ss focused primarily on future scenarios when predicting their completion times. In Study 4, the optimistic bias was eliminated for Ss instructed to connect relevant past experiences with their predictions. In Studies 3 and 4, Ss attributed their past prediction failures to relatively external, transient, and specific factors. In Study 5, observer Ss overestimated others' completion times and made greater use of relevant past experiences.In 1871, the colony of British Columbia agreed to join the new country of Canada on the condition that a transcontinental railway reach the west coast by 1881. In fact, because of the intervention of an economic depression and political changes, the last spike was not driven until 1885, 4 years after the predicted date of completion. Nearly 100 years later, in 1969, the mayor of Montreal proudly announced that the 1976 Olympics would feature a state-of-the-art coliseum covered by the first retractable roof ever built on a stadium. According to mayor Jean Drapeau, the entire Olympic venture would cost $ 120 million and "can no more have a deficit than a man can have a baby" (Colombo, 1987, p. 269). Because of economic problems, strikes, and other construction delays, the stadium roof was not in place until 1989, 13 years after the predicted date of completion-and cost $120 million by itself! Many people consider the Sydney Opera House to be the champion of all planning disasters.

The authors explore the well-documented tendency for people to predict that they will finish tasks earlier than they actually do. Whereas previous research has tied this optimistic bias to the operation of specific cognitive processes, the present studies examine the interplay between motivation and cognition. Two studies supported the hypothesis that incentives to finish tasks quickly exacerbate the optimistic bias. An initial field study using a naturally occurring incentive manipulation demonstrated that individuals who expected an income tax refund were more (overly) optimistic in predicting when they would complete their income tax forms than those who did not expect a refund. A laboratory experiment using a word generation task replicated this general effect and identified mediating cognitive mechanisms: Monetary incentives for early completion led to optimistic predictions, increased attention to detailed future plans, and reduced attention to relevant past experiences.

In five studies, university students predicted their affective reactions to a wide variety of positive and negative future events. In Studies 1 to 3, participants also reported the affective reactions they experienced when the target event occurred. As hypothesized, they tended to anticipate more intense reactions than they actually experienced. In Studies 3 to 5, a cognitive determinant of this “intensity bias” was examined. It was hypothesized that people anticipate stronger affective reactions when they focus narrowly on an upcoming event in a manner that neglects past experience and less intense reactions when they consider a set of relevant previous experiences. Evidence from thought-listing measures as well as an experimental manipulation of temporal focus supported this hypothesis.

Imagining future success can sometimes enhance people's motivation to achieve it. This article examines a phenomenological aspect of positive mental imagery--the visual perspective adopted--that may moderate its motivational impact. The authors hypothesize that people feel more motivated to succeed on a future task when they visualize its successful completion from a third-person rather than a first-person perspective. Actions viewed from the third-person perspective are generally construed at a relatively high level of abstraction--in a manner that highlights their larger meaning and significance--which should heighten their motivational impact. Three studies in the domain of academic motivation support this reasoning. Students experience a greater increase in achievement motivation when they imagine their successful task completion from a third-rather than a first-person perspective. Moreover, mediational analyses reveal that third-person imagery boosts motivation by prompting students to construe their success abstractly and to perceive it as important.

Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overly optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participants to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predictions. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion either alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios did not affect predictions or accuracy and were consistently rated less plausible than optimistic scenarios (Experiments 1-3). Experiment 4 independently manipulated scenario plausibility and optimism. Plausibility moderated the impact of optimistic, but not pessimistic, scenarios. Experiment 5 supported a motivational explanation of the tendency to disregard pessimistic scenarios regardless of their plausibility. People took pessimistic scenarios into account when predicting someone else's completion times. The authors conclude that pessimisticscenario generation may not be an effective debiasing technique for personal predictions. At one time or another, many of us have smirked while passing a vacant lot with a weather-beaten sign announcing that a new supermarket will be "Opening Soon!" Such unwarranted optimism also pervades people's predictions of their task completion times. People tend to underestimate how long they will take to finish academic, household, and laboratory tasks (Buehler,

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Five studies examined how self-focused attention affects the impact of negative moods on autobiographical memory. It was proposed that self-focused attention to moods may increase the likelihood of both mood-congruent recall and mood-incongruent recall and that the type of recall effect that occurs will depend on the manner in which people focus on their moods. In these studies, participants were led to experience negative or neutral moods, exposed to a manipulation designed to affect some aspect of their attention to their moods, and then asked to report memories. This research revealed that when people adopt a reflective orientation to their moods, they are more likely to engage in mood-incongruent recall; in contrast, when they adopt a ruminative orientation to their moods, they are more likely to engage in mood-congruent recall. Thus, the way in which people focus on their moods moderates the relation between mood and memory.

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