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We empirically analyze how the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) communication affects the term structure of future interest rates. Using principal components analysis, we construct a measure of the Monetary Policy Committee Minutes content that reflects policy makers optimism about the economic conditions. We call this measure the Optimism Factor (OF). When policy makers are more optimistic, reflected by increments in the OF, markets expectations respond and long-term future interest rates drop. Furthermore, when policy makers are pessimistic, reflected by a decrease in the OF, volatility on future interest rates increases. Our result indicates that policy maker communication has an effective impact on market expectations. Analisamos empiricamente como as atas do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) afetam a estrutura a termos da taxa de juros. Usando Análise de Componentes Principais, construímos uma medida do conteúdo dessas atas que reflete o otimismo dos gesto-res de política monetária em relação às condições economicas. Nomeamos essa me-dida de Fator de Otimismo (OF). Quando os gestores estão mais otimistas, de forma que o OF aumenta, as taxas de juros de longo prazo caem respondendo às expectati-vas de mercados. Além disso, quando os gestores estão pessimistas, de modo que o OF cai, a volatilidade das taxas de juros futuras aumenta. Nossos resultados suge-rem que a comunicação dos gestores de política monetária tem um impacto efectivo nas expectativas do mercado.

According to theory, the level of short-selling can predict short-run future returns throughout two channels. One is related to the demand-side of the stock lending market: short-sellers are informed. The other is related to the supply-side: short-sellers are restricted. Measuring the importance of each channel is empirically challenging once, in general, supply and demand in the stock lending market are not directly observable. This paper takes advantage of a unique dataset that contains actual shifts in lending supply for stocks on the Brazilian market, and proposes an identification strategy for the effects of both supply and demand on stock prices. We find that both channels are important.

Secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development. However, the evaluation of the causal e¤ects of land titling is a di¢ cult task. The Brazilian government through a program called "Papel Passado" has issued titles, since 2004, to over 85,000 families and has the goal to reach 750,000. Furthermore, another topic in Public Policy, that is crucial for developing economies, is child labor force participation. Particularly, in Brazil, about 5.4 million children and teenagers between 5 and 17 years old are still working full time. This paper examines the direct impact of securing a property title on child labor force participation. In order to isolate the causal role of ownership security, this study uses a comparison between two close and very similar communities in the City of Osasco case (a town with 650,000 people in the São Paulo metropolitan area). The key point of this case is that some units get the program and others do not. One of them, Jardim Canaã, was fortunate to receive the titles in 2007, the other, Jardim DR, given …scal constraints, only will be part of the program schedule in 2012, and for that reason became the control group. The estimates, generated using Di¤erence-in-Di¤erence (DD) econometric technique, suggest that titling results in a substantial decrease of child labor force participation for the families that received the title compared to the others. Such remarks can provide a relevant subsidize regarding future public tools to approach informality and a¤ect economic growth.

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