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Purpose Studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication are still scarce. To the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies regarding emerging economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: to analyze the determinants of the clarity of the central bank communication in an inflation targeting emerging economy; observe the influence of inflation volatility over the clarity; and observe the effect of the monetary policy signaling over the clarity. Design/methodology/approach The work uses readability indexes to measure the clarity of central bank communication. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and the Generalized Method of Moments with one- and two-step estimations. Findings The findings suggest the inflation volatility reduces the clarity of central bank communication. Moreover, the monetary policy signaling also affects the clarity, but the effect depends on the direction of the signal. Practical implications This paper observes the determinants of the clarity considering an emerging economy environment. The clarity of central bank communications is an important tool to access transparency. Hence, the analysis of what determines the clarity of central bank communication is a debate about the level of transparency accessed by the central bank. Originality/value There are no studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication in emerging economies. Moreover, the novelty are the effects of inflation volatility and monetary policy signaling over the clarity.

Purpose – Due to the fact that studies on central bank communication in emerging countries are still scarce and there are few studies related to the influence that central bank’s perspectives about the state of the economy have on inflation expectations in emerging economies, the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: it proposes an indicator of the central bank’s perception of inflation based on the minutes of the COPOM meetings, and, it analyzes the influence of central bank communication on expert inflation expectations through such indicator. Design/methodology/approach – Due to the fact that the perception of the Central Bank of Brazil is not directly observable, it is measured through the fuzzy set theory by an indicator that captures the informational content of the minutes of the COPOM meetings. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares, the generalized method of moments and vector-autoregressive through impulse-response analysis. Findings – The findings suggest that the expectations of financial market experts react according to the content of the information provided by the central bank, i.e., announcements cause deterioration of expectations in times of instability, and reduce inflation expectations when inflation is controlled. The results also support the idea that the credibility of inflation targeting plays a key role in determining inflation expectations. Practical implications – This paper suggests a new approach on studies about central bank communication. The focus here is not on the effect of the announcements in terms of future monetary policy, but on the perception of the central bank in terms of inflation. This central bank’s perception reflects the optimistic or pessimistic view about the economic outlook and risk of inflation and this perception is considered by experts of financial markets. Originality/value – For Brazil, there are no studies about the influence of communication through the minutes of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee meetings on inflation expectations. The authors develop an indicator in order to measure central bank’s perception of inflation based on the minutes of COPOM meetings.

A renda do petróleo exerce impacto sobre os mecanismos de desenvolvimento dos países. Considerando a relevância do tema, o objetivo deste estudo é a realização de uma revisão da bibliografia sobre a renda do petróleo, sistematizando o conhecimento estabelecido e as agendas de pesquisa. A amostra utilizada consiste em 182 artigos coletados na Web of Science, no período de 1978 a agosto de 2020. Os resultados indicam o crescimento de artigos publicados a partir de 2014, período coincidente com a queda do preço do petróleo, que impactou os países cujo eixo dinâmico da economia reside neste setor. Dez países em termos de nacionalidade dos autores concentram 58,24% dos autores dos artigos sobre o tema. O artigo com maior média de citação por ano é Regional Favoritism e Khalid Zaman foi identificado como o principal autor da amostra. As principais revistas científicas em termos de quantidade de artigos e de fator de impacto são, respectivamente, Resources Policy e Energy Economics. A rede de cocitação de autores indicou que os principais autores discutem as implicações relacionadas com a abundância dos recursos naturais. A rede de co-ocorrência de palavras-chave com a indicação de incidência em períodos recentes, evidenciou a direção dos estudos para temas relacionados aos impactos sobre o crescimento, a utilização de métodos empíricos para os estudos sobre o tema, discussão sobre a abundância, dependência e maldição dos recursos naturais, financiamento do desenvolvimento, relação entre capital humano e renda do petróleo, bem como temas ligados ao meio ambiente e sustentabilidade.

Since the early 1990s, several countries have adopted inflation targeting (IT). However, IT may not be sufficient to ensure fiscal discipline, and governments can still pursue irresponsible fiscal policies under IT. The adoption of irresponsible policies, which lead to a weak fiscal credibility, could undermine the credibility of the central bank. In the present study, we investigate whether a correlation between fiscal credibility and central bank credibility exists. The study contributes to the literature since it presents evidence on the relation between fiscal credibility and central bank credibility. The empirical analysis uses different econometric techniques (OLS, GMM and TOBIT). The findings suggest a positive relation between fiscal credibility and central bank credibility