In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability” and half are “high variability”. Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets – despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some “global warming” since the 19th century. For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended “anthropogenic forcings” time series. For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series, different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades (implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused) to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity (that is, that recent global warming is mostly natural). It appears that previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) which had prematurely concluded the former, had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates. Therefore, several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.
A B S T R A C TWe have performed N-body numerical simulations of the exchange of angular momentum between a massive planet and a 3D Keplerian disc of planetesimals. Our interest is directed at the study of the classical analytical expressions of the lineal theory of density waves, as representative of the dynamical friction in discs 'dominated by the planet' and the orbital migration of the planets with regard to this effect. By means of a numerical integration of the equations of motion, we have carried out a set of numerical experiments with a large number of particles ðN $ 10 000Þ, and planets with the mass of Jupiter, Saturn and one core mass of the giant planets in the Solar system ðM c ¼ 10 M % Þ. The torque, measured in a phase in which a 'steady forcing' is clearly measurable, yields inward migration in a minimum-mass solar disc ðS , 10 g cm 22 ), with a characteristic drift time of , a few 10 6 yr. The planets predate the disc, but the orbital decay rate is not sufficient to allow accretion in a time-scale relevant to the formation of giant planets. We found reductions of the measured torque on the planet, with respect to the linear theory, by a factor of 0.38 for M c , 0.04 for Saturn and 0.01 for Jupiter, due to the increase in the perturbation on the disc. The behaviour of planets whose mass is larger than M c is similar to the one of type II migrators in gaseous discs. Our results suggest that, in a minimum mass, solar planetesimals disc, type I migrations occur for masses smaller than M c , whereas for this mass value it could be a transition zone between the two types of migration.
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