No abstract

Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green-up, and this 'mismatch' between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long-term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first-year survival. Too few plant 'growing days' in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long-run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.

ABSTRACT. The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how climate change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual firstyear survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.Dépendance à la densité et désynchronisation phénologique : conséquences sur la croissance et la survie des Bernaches du Canada nichant en milieu subarctique RÉSUMÉ. Le degré de plasticité que montrent les espèces dans la chronologie de leurs activités de reproduction en fonction de la phénologie nous en apprend sur la façon avec laquelle les changements climatiques pourraient affecter leur démographie. Un décalage entre la période d'éclosion des oiseaux et le pic de disponibilité des ressources alimentaires, tant en quantité qu'en qualité, pour les jeunes en croissance, peut ultimement perturber le recrutement dans la population nicheuse, à moins que les individus ne soient capables de synchroniser leur reproduction avec la phénologie changeante. Nous avons évalué les effets de la densité des bernaches, de la période d'éclosion relativement à la phénologie des plantes recherchées pour l'alimentation, et de paramètres météorologiques sur la croissance annuelle de Bernaches du Canada (Branta canadensis) avant leur premier envol, de 1993 à 2010, sur l'île Akimiski au Nunavut. Nous avons observé des effets de la densité et la période d'éc...

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk-partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four-egg clutch declined by 8-78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1-12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0-2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over

populations était aussi très sensible aux variations unitaires ou proportionnelles du succès d'éclosion moyen et des taux de survie des canetons ou des juvéniles. Étant donné les faibles effectifs d'échantillons disponibles pour certains aspects-clé du cycle de vie du Petit Fuligule, nous recommandons que des travaux additionnels soient effectués sur les taux vitaux qui ont une influence majeure sur l'accroissement des populations et leur effectif (ex. taux de survie des adultes). Nos modèles de cycle de vie devraient être testés et mis à jour régulièrement afin de guider l'étude et la gestion des populations de Petit Fuligule dans un contexte adaptatif.

The Mississippi Flyway midwinter population survey (MWS) indicates that American black ducks (Anas rubripes) have been rapidly declining for the last 10 years. We found a negative relationship between MWS and Ontario (Canada) midwinter counts for black ducks. Thus, as number of black ducks in the MWS decreased, Ontario midwinter counts increased. A shift in midwinter distribution of black ducks may be partly responsible for the decreasing trend in MWS counts. We recommend that midwinter black duck surveys be expanded to more sites in southern Canada and northeastern United States that currently are not sampled to better assess winter habitat use and improve the midwinter black‐duck population index.

Conservation status and management priorities are often informed by population trends. Trend estimates can be derived from population surveys or models, but both methods are associated with sources of uncertainty. Many Arctic-breeding shorebirds are thought to be declining based on migration and/or overwintering population surveys, but data are lacking to estimate the trends of some shorebird species. In addition, for most species, little is known about the stage(s) at which population bottlenecks occur, such as breeding vs. nonbreeding periods. We used previously published and unpublished estimates of vital rates to develop the first large-scale population models for 6 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds in North America, including separate estimates for 3 subspecies of Dunlin. We used the models to estimate population trends and identify life stages at which population growth may be limited. Our model for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin agreed with previously published information that the subspecies is severely declining. Our results also linked the decline to the subspecies’ low annual adult survival rate, thus potentially implicating factors during the nonbreeding period in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. However, our trend estimates for all species showed high uncertainty, highlighting the need for more accurate and precise estimates of vital rates. Of the vital rates, annual adult survival had the strongest influence on population trend in all taxa. Improving the accuracy, precision, and spatial and temporal coverage of estimates of vital rates, especially annual adult survival, would improve demographic model-based estimates of population trends and help direct management to regions or seasons where birds are subject to higher mortality.

The Arctic is experiencing rapidly warming conditions, increasing predator abundance, and diminishing population cycles of keystone species such as lemmings. However, it is still not known how many Arctic animals will respond to a changing climate with altered trophic interactions. We studied clutch size, incubation duration and nest survival of 17 taxa of Arctic-breeding shorebirds at 16 field sites over 7 years. We predicted that physiological benefits of higher temperatures and earlier snowmelt would increase reproductive effort and nest survival, and we expected increasing predator abundance and