Computational approaches for binding affinity prediction are most frequently demonstrated through cross-validation within a series of molecules or through performance shown on a blinded test set. Here, we show how such a system performs in an iterative, temporal lead optimization exercise. A series of gyrase inhibitors with known synthetic order formed the set of molecules that could be selected for “synthesis.” Beginning with a small number of molecules, based only on structures and activities, a model was constructed. Compound selection was done computationally, each time making five selections based on confident predictions of high activity and five selections based on a quantitative measure of three-dimensional structural novelty. Compound selection was followed by model refinement using the new data. Iterative computational candidate selection produced rapid improvements in selected compound activity, and incorporation of explicitly novel compounds uncovered much more diverse active inhibitors than strategies lacking active novelty selection.
Predicting which mutations proteins tolerate while maintaining their structure and function has important applications for modeling fundamental properties of proteins and their evolution; it also drives progress in protein design. Here we develop a computational model to predict the tolerated sequence space of HIV-1 protease reachable by single mutations. We assess the model by comparison to the observed variability in more than 50,000 HIV-1 protease sequences, one of the most comprehensive datasets on tolerated sequence space. We then extend the model to a second protein, reverse transcriptase. The model integrates multiple structural and functional constraints acting on a protein and uses ensembles of protein conformations. We find the model correctly captures a considerable fraction of protease and reverse-transcriptase mutational tolerance and shows comparable accuracy using either experimentally determined or computationally generated structural ensembles. Predictions of tolerated sequence space afforded by the model provide insights into stability-function tradeoffs in the emergence of resistance mutations and into strengths and limitations of the computational model.
Binding affinity prediction is frequently addressed using computational models constructed solely with molecular structure and activity data. We present a hybrid structure-guided strategy that combines molecular similarity, docking, and multiple-instance learning such that information from protein structures can be used to inform models of structure–activity relationships. The Surflex-QMOD approach has been shown to produce accurate predictions of binding affinity by constructing an interpretable physical model of a binding site with no experimental binding site structural information. We introduce a method to integrate protein structure information into the model induction process in order to construct more robust physical models. The structure-guided models accurately predict binding affinities over a broad range of compounds while producing more accurate representations of the protein pockets and ligand binding modes. Structure-guidance for the QMOD method yielded significant performance improvements, both for affinity and pose prediction, especially in cases where predictions were made on ligands very different from those used for model induction.
Hundreds of protein crystal structures exist for proteins whose function cannot be confidently determined from sequence similarity. Surflex-PSIM, a previously reported surface-based protein similarity algorithm, provides an alternative method for hypothesizing function for such proteins. The method now supports fully automatic binding site detection and is fast enough to screen comprehensive databases of protein binding sites. The binding site detection methodology was validated on apo/holo cognate protein pairs, correctly identifying 91% of ligand binding sites in holo structures and 88% in apo structures where corresponding sites existed. For correctly detected apo binding sites, the cognate holo site was the most similar binding site 87% of the time. PSIM was used to screen a set of proteins that had poorly characterized functions at the time of crystallization, but were later biochemically annotated. Using a fully automated protocol, this set of 8 proteins was screened against approximately 60,000 ligand binding sites from the PDB. PSIM correctly identified functional matches that pre-dated query protein biochemical annotation for five out of the eight query proteins. A panel of twelve currently unannotated proteins was also screened, resulting in a large number of statistically significant binding site matches, some of which suggest likely functions for the poorly characterized proteins.
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