Protected areas throughout the world are key for conserving biodiversity, and land use is key for providing food, fiber, and other ecosystem services essential for human sustenance. As land use change isolates protected areas from their surrounding landscapes, the challenge is to identify management opportunities that maintain ecological function while minimizing restrictions on human land use. Building on the case studies in this Invited Feature and on ecological principles, we identify opportunities for regional land management that maintain both ecological function in protected areas and human land use options, including preserving crucial habitats and migration corridors, and reducing dependence of local human populations on protected area resources. Identification of appropriate and effective management opportunities depends on clear definitions of: (1) the biodiversity attributes of concern; (2) landscape connections to delineate particular locations with strong ecological interactions between the protected area and its surrounding landscape; and (3) socioeconomic dynamics that determine current and future use of land resources in and around the protected area.

Rangelands cover more of Earth's land surface than any other type of land. They have variable and harsh climates, are sparsely populated and remote from markets, produce significant quantities of livestock, and are mostly used and managed in common. Under this already unpredictable and harsh climate, pastoral peoples and rangelands face new and accelerating political, economic, and climatic stresses that challenge their coupled resilience and ability to adapt. In response, pastoralists are creating new ways to manage rangelands through conservancies and community-based institutions on state, common, and private land. In this review, we focus on recent advances in our understanding of rangeland social-ecological systems, as well as on the causes and consequences of change in these systems. We then explore how pastoral peoples, governments, and businesses are responding to these changes to build resilience to sustain both pastoralism and rangelands. We close with a description of unresolved issues, challenges, and questions for the future. 217 Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 2014.39:217-242. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org Access provided by Monash University on 12/15/14. For personal use only.

Aim  Wildlife and pastoral peoples have lived side‐by‐side in the Mara ecosystem of south‐western Kenya for at least 2000 years. Recent changes in human population and landuse are jeopardizing this co‐existence. The aim of the study is to determine the viability of pastoralism and wildlife conservation in Maasai ranches around the Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR). Location  A study area of 2250 km2 was selected in the northern part of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, encompassing group ranches adjoining the MMNR. Emphasis is placed on Koyake Group Ranch, a rangeland area owned by Maasai pastoralists, and one of Kenya's major wildlife tourism areas. Methods  Maasai settlement patterns, vegetation, livestock numbers and wildlife numbers were analysed over a 50‐year period. Settlement distributions and vegetation changes were determined from aerial photography and aerial surveys of 1950, 1961, 1967, 1974, 1983 and 1999. Livestock and wildlife numbers were determined from re‐analysis of systematic reconnaissance flights conducted by the Kenya Government from 1977 to 2000, and from ground counts in 2002. Corroborating data on livestock numbers were obtained from aerial photography of Maasai settlements in 2001. Trends in livestock were related to rainfall, and to vegetation production as indicated by the seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. With these data sets, per capita livestock holdings were determined for the period 1980–2000, a period of fluctuating rainfall and primary production. Results  For the first half of the twentieth century, the Mara was infested with tsetse‐flies, and the Maasai were confined to the Lemek Valley area to the north of the MMNR. During the early 1960s, active tsetse‐control measures by both government and the Maasai led to the destruction of woodlands across the Mara and the retreat of tsetse flies. The Maasai were then able to expand their settlement area south towards MMNR. Meanwhile, wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) from the increasing Serengeti population began to spill into the Mara rangelands each dry season, leading to direct competition between livestock and wildlife. Group ranches were established in the area in 1970 to formalize land tenure for the Maasai. By the late 1980s, with rapid population growth, new settlement areas had been established at Talek and other parts adjacent to the MMNR. Over the period 1983–99, the number of Maasai bomas in Koyake has increased at 6.4% per annum (pa), and the human population at 4.4% pa. Over the same period, cattle numbers on Koyake varied from 20,000 to 45,000 (average 25,000), in relation to total rainfall received over the previous 2 years. The rangelands of the Mara cannot support a greater cattle population under current pastoral practices. Conclusions  With the rapid increase in human settlement in the Mara, and with imminent land privatization, it is probable that wildlife populations on Koyake will decline significantly in the next 3–5 years. Per capita livestock holdings on the ranch have now fallen to thr...

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Biodiversity in rangelands is decreasing, due to intense utilization for livestock production and conversion of rangeland into cropland; yet the outlook of rangeland biodiversity has not been considered in view of future global demand for food. Here we assess the impact of future livestock production on the global rangelands area and their biodiversity. First we formalized existing knowledge about livestock grazing impacts on biodiversity, expressed in mean species abundance (MSA) of the original rangeland native species assemblages, through metaanalysis of peer-reviewed literature. MSA values, ranging from 1 in natural rangelands to 0.3 in man-made grasslands, were entered in the IMAGE-GLOBIO model. This model was used to assess the impact of change in food demand and livestock production on future rangeland biodiversity. The model revealed remarkable regional variation in impact on rangeland area and MSA between two agricultural production scenarios. The area of used rangelands slightly increases globally between 2000 and 2050 in the baseline scenario and reduces under a scenario of enhanced uptake of resource-efficient production technologies increasing production [high levels of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (high-AKST)], particularly in Africa. Both scenarios suggest a global decrease in MSA for rangelands until 2050. The contribution of livestock grazing to MSA loss is, however, expected to diminish after 2030, in particular in Africa under the high-AKST scenario. Policies fostering agricultural intensification can reduce the overall pressure on rangeland biodiversity, but additional measures, addressing factors such as climate change and infrastructural development, are necessary to totally halt biodiversity loss.

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Animal population dynamics can be driven by changing climatic forcing, shifting habitat conditions, trophic interactions and anthropogenic influences. To understand these influences, we analyzed trends in populations of seven ungulate species counted during 15 years (1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003) of monthly monitoring using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Abundance of six species declined markedly and persistently throughout the reserve during this period. The declines were contemporaneous with progressive habitat deterioration due to changing land use in pastoral ranches bordering the reserve, habitat desiccation due to rising temperatures, recurrent severe droughts and an exceptional ENSO flood in 1997-1998. The effect of progressive habitat deterioration was accentuated by illicit harvest, competition with livestock and elevated predation. After factoring out the influence of rainfall, ungulate populations declined more markedly in sections of the reserve experiencing greater livestock incursions and poaching. The declines were significantly correlated with increasing number of settlements and people in the pastoral ranches for five species. Heightened predation following a crash in the buffalo Syncerus caffer population during a severe drought in 1993 had little support as the primary cause of the declines.

Summary 1.Rainfall is the prime climatic factor underpinning the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, but no study has analysed its influence on the abundance of these ungulates at monthly to multiannual time scales. 2. We report relationships between rainfall and changes in age-and sex-structured abundances of seven ungulate species monitored monthly for 15 years using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. 3. Abundance showed strong and curvilinear relationships with current and cumulative rainfall, with older topi, Damaliscus korrigum (Ogilby); warthog, Phacochoerus aethiopicus (Pallas); waterbuck, Kobus ellipsyprimnus (Ogilby); and impala, Aepyceros melampus (Lichtenstein) responding to longer lags than younger animals, portraying carryover effects of prior habitat conditions. 4. The abundances of newborn calves were best correlated with monthly rainfall averaged over the preceding 5-6 months for topi, waterbuck, warthog, and 2 months for the migratory zebra Equus burchelli (Gray), but with seasonal rainfall averaged over 2-5 years for giraffe, Giraffa camelopardalis (L.); impala; and kongoni, Alcelaphus busephalus (Pallas). The cumulative late wet-season rainfall was the best predictor of abundance for quarter-to full-grown animals for most species. Monthly rainfall exerted both negative and positive effects on the abundances of zebra, impala and waterbuck. Ignoring age, both sexes responded similarly to rainfall. 5. Births were strongly seasonal only for warthog and topi, but peaked between August and December for most species. Hence abundance was strongly seasonal for young topi and warthog and the migratory zebra. Pronounced seasonality in births for warthog and topi obliterated otherwise strong relationships between abundance and rainfall when both month and rainfall were included in the same model. Aggregated density produced relationships with rainfall similar to those for fully grown animals, emphasizing the necessity of demographic monitoring to reliably reveal rainfall influences on ungulate abundance in the Mara. 6. Strong relationships between abundance and rainfall suggest that rainfall underpins the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, and that changes in rainfall due to global warming may markedly alter the abundance and diversity of these mammals. Ungulates respond to rainfall fluctuations through movements, reproduction or survival, and the responses appear independent of breeding phenology and synchrony, dietary guild, or degree of water dependence. Newborns and adults have contrasting responses to rainfall. Males and females respond similarly to rainfall when age is ignored.