In the area of sea-level rise, recent research has focused on assessing either likely or high end future sea levels, but less attention has been given to “low-end” sea-level projections, exploring best-case potential sea-level changes and providing the basis for estimating minimum adaptation needs. Here, we provide global and regional probabilistic sea-level projections using conservative projections of glaciers and ice-sheets melting and a selection of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) delivering moderate thermal expansion. Our low-end sea-level projections are higher than previously estimated because they rely on modeling outcomes only, and do not add any expert judgement, aiming essentially at delivering more realistic upper tails. While there are good reasons to believe that our projections are excessively optimistic, they can be used as low-end sea-level projections in order to inform users with low aversion to uncertainty. Our low-end sea-level projection exceeds 0.5 m along most inhabited coasts by 2100 for business as usual greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), which is relevant for adaptation practitioners as long as efficient climate change mitigation policies are not implemented. This means that without efficient climate mitigation, an acceleration of sea-level rise can hardly be avoided during the 21st century.
A new marine volcano is erupting offshore Mayotte since May 2018, generating numerous earthquakes. The population felt many of them and the stronger shaking of the ongoing sequence caused slight damage to buildings. Historical records also confirm that damaging earthquakes had occurred in the past in this region. Seismic damage scenarios are a key tool for supporting the decision-making process, the preparedness, and for designing appropriate emergency responses. This paper provides the outcomes of a work consisting in improving the seismic risk assessment as a part of disaster risk governance and exposes the scientific background of this workflow. It illustrates its use with two earthquakes. Related post-seismic surveys provide observations that are useful to check the validity of the reference dataset. The paper also discusses the main characteristics of the rapid loss assessment tool that has been developed to provide operational information for crisis management.
As climate is changing, more applied information on its impacts is required to inform adaptation planning. It is a fact that during the last decade, the amount of information relevant for climate change impact assessment has grown drastically. This can be particularly illustrated in coastal areas, where a most important recent development has been the delivery of precise and accurate topography obtained by LiDAR at regional to national scales. However, these developments have not led to easier assessment of coastal climate change impacts. This is due to both to the complexity of coastal models that also depend on local natural changes and anthropogenic actions and to the difficulty to actually use such large and complex datasets. In this paper, we describe a prototype of web service to quickly communicate spatial information on future flooding along the French coastal zones. We discuss several issues related to data architecture at large scale, on-the-fly (geo)processing capabilities, management of asynchronous workflows and data diffusion strategies in the context of international standards such as INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe). We believe that our flexible architecture, mainly reusing off-the-shelf components is able to improve both complex scenarios analysis for experts and dissemination of these future coastal changes to the general public.
Enabling storing, scenario design, documentation, access and execution of scientific computations for multirisks mapping is the aim of the VIGIRISKS web platform currently designed and developed by the BRGM (French Geological Survey). VIGIRISKS platform insures geohazards data management, reproducibility of risks calculations, allows information transparency and improving efficiency by easing collaborative work and sharing results and practices. The scientific scope is multirisk mapping, including cascading effects, in the domain of natural hazard (earthquake, landslide and submersion) from the phenomenon modelling to the impact evaluation on exposed elements such as buildings. VIGIRISKS web platform initially designed for BRGM experts aims to be in a long-term an open repository for national and international experts working on natural hazards management. Integration and deployment of new data sets and computational processes oriented towards risks mapping is as automatic as possible for the convenience of users.
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