Energy is central to addressing major challenges of the 21st Century, challenges like climate change, economic and social development, human well-being, sustainable development, and global security. In 2005, Prof. Bert Bolin, the founding Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with other eminent scientists and policy-makers, identified that a comprehensive, science-based assessment of the global energy system was needed if these challenges were to be realistically addressed. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) is the result of this shared vision. Since the establishment of the GEA in 2006 by governing Council of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 500 independent experts (about 300 authors and 200 anonymous reviewers) from academia, business, government, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations from all the regions of the world have contributed to GEA in a process similar to that adopted by the IPCC. The final GEA report examines: (a) the major global challenges and their linkages to energy; (b) the technologies and resources available for providing adequate, modern and affordable forms of energy; (c) the plausible structure of future energy systems most suited to addressing the century's challenges; and (d) the policies and measures, institutions and capacities needed to realize sustainable energy futures. Undertaking such a massive assessment has required extraordinary leadership, intellectual input, support and coordination. Governance of the Assessment has been overseen by the GEA Council, led by two Co-Presidents, Ged Davis and Jos é Goldemberg and comprising members of supporters and sponsors of the GEA, including international organizations, government agencies, corporations, and foundations and non-governmental organizations. Convening Lead Authors (CLAs) coordinated the 25 Chapters and the contributions of Lead and Contributing Authors. The GEA Executive Committee, led by two Co-Chairs, Thomas B. Johansson and Anand Patwardhan includes all CLAs. Review Editors were appointed by the GEA Council for each Chapter. They in turn appointed anonymous reviewers and guided the rigorous peer-review process. Completion of GEA has involved dedication and sustained contributions from many colleagues around the world. Our thanks and gratitude go to: Leen Hordijk, the IIASA Director who initiated GEA at IIASA; Sten Nilsson, IIASA Acting Director and Deputy Director; and Detlof von Winterfeldt, the IIASA Director who provided personal and institutional support throughout. The resources and the encouragement they provided helped make GEA a reality. The GEA Organizing Committee and the GEA Council provided wise counsel and guidance throughout. Additionally the GEA Council solicited financial and in-kind resources without which GEA would not have been possible. We are especially grateful for the contribution and support of the GEA Council, the Executive Committee, the Organizing Committee, the Secretariat, as well as the IIASA Council and management. As host ...
This study assesses the threat that depletion poses to the availability of petroleum resources. It does so by estimating cumulative availability curves for conventional petroleum (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids) and for three unconventional sources of liquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). The analysis extends the important study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (2000) on this topic by taking account of (1) conventional petroleum resources from provinces not assessed by the Survey or other organizations, (2) future reserve growth, (3) unconventional sources of liquids, and (4) production costs.The results indicate that large quantities of conventional and unconventional petroleum resources are available and can be produced at costs substantially below current market prices of around US$120 per barrel. These findings suggest that petroleum resources are likely to last far longer than many are now predicting and that depletion need not drive market prices above the relatively high levels prevailing over the past several years.
As the Asia Pacific region continues to experience rapid economic growth, natural gas may have an important role in satisfying regional demand and transitioning to a low carbon economy. In this study, a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) is used to analyze the market shares of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. The model matches the historical energy mix from 1850 to 2010 as well as the historical hydrogen to carbon (H/C) ratio. The GEM is then used to present scenarios of the Asia Pacific energy mix and H/C ratio to the year 2030. The scenarios vary according to policies and technologies that either encourage or discourage gas use. Estimates of conventional and unconventional gas quantities and costs are also presented, partly with a Variable Shape Distribution Model (VSD) and supply curves. The Asia Pacific is found to have vast natural gas resources, though suitable policies are needed to develop the potential. For instance, incentives will be necessary for investment in gas and LNG technology, as increased market share will not occur if investment does not take place in a timely fashion. In addition, it is important that government intervention not create disincentives for development of the regional gas and LNG industries.
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