Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.

Highlights In our experience chest CT had a significantly higher specificity and accuracy in detecting COVID-19 pneumonia than previously reported. Chest CT and RT-PCR positive rates were 485/773 (62.7 %) and 462/773 (59.7 %), respectively. CT sensitivity and specificity for COVID 19 with RT-PCR as reference were 90.7 % and 78.8 % respectively. CT PPV, NPV and accuracy were 86.4 %, 85.1 % and 85.9 % respectively.

Background Lower muscle mass is a known predictor of unfavorable outcome, but its prognostic impact on COVID-19 patients is unknown. Purpose To investigate the contribution of CT-derived muscle status in predicting clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Materials and Methods Clinical/laboratory data and outcomes (intensive care unit [ICU] admission and death) were retrospectively retrieved for patients with reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19, who underwent chest CT on admission in four hospitals in Northern Italy from February 21 to April 30, 2020. Extent and type of pulmonary involvement, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and pleural effusion were assessed. Cross-sectional areas and attenuation of paravertebral muscles were measured on axial CT images at T5 and T12 vertebral level. Multivariable linear and binary logistic regression, including calculation odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were used to build four models to predict ICU admission and death, tested and compared using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. Results A total 552 patients (364 men; median age 65 years, interquartile range 54–75) were included. In a CT-based model, lower-than-median T5 paravertebral muscle area showed the highest ORs for ICU admission (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.7–8.5; P <.001) and death (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0–2.9; P =.027). When clinical variables were included in the model, lower-than-median T5 paravertebral muscle area still showed the highest ORs both for ICU admission (OR 4.3; 95% CI 2.5–7.7; P <.001) and death (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.7; P =.001). At ROC analysis, the CT-based model and the model including clinical variables showed the same area under the curve (AUC) for ICU admission prediction (AUC 0.83, P =.380) and were not different in predicting death (AUC 0.86 versus AUC 0.87, respectively, P =.282). Conclusion In hospitalized patients with COVID-19, lower muscle mass on CT was independently associated with ICU admission and hospital mortality.

Pulmonary parenchymal and vascular damage are frequently reported in COVID-19 patients and can be assessed with unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT), widely used as a triaging exam. Integrating clinical data, chest CT features, and CT-derived vascular metrics, we aimed to build a predictive model of in-hospital mortality using univariate analysis (Mann–Whitney U test) and machine learning models (support vectors machines (SVM) and multilayer perceptrons (MLP)). Patients with RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and unenhanced chest CT performed on emergency department admission were included after retrieving their outcome (discharge or death), with an 85/15% training/test dataset split. Out of 897 patients, the 229 (26%) patients who died during hospitalization had higher median pulmonary artery diameter (29.0 mm) than patients who survived (27.0 mm, p < 0.001) and higher median ascending aortic diameter (36.6 mm versus 34.0 mm, p < 0.001). SVM and MLP best models considered the same ten input features, yielding a 0.747 (precision 0.522, recall 0.800) and 0.844 (precision 0.680, recall 0.567) area under the curve, respectively. In this model integrating clinical and radiological data, pulmonary artery diameter was the third most important predictor after age and parenchymal involvement extent, contributing to reliable in-hospital mortality prediction, highlighting the value of vascular metrics in improving patient stratification.

Introduction. The clinical course of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is highly heterogenous, ranging from asymptomatic to fatal forms. The identification of clinical and laboratory predictors of poor prognosis may assist clinicians in monitoring strategies and therapeutic decisions. Materials and Methods. In this study, we retrospectively assessed the prognostic value of a simple tool, the complete blood count, on a cohort of 664 patients ( F 260; 39%, median age 70 (56-81) years) hospitalized for COVID-19 in Northern Italy. We collected demographic data along with complete blood cell count; moreover, the outcome of the hospital in-stay was recorded. Results. At data cut-off, 221/664 patients (33.3%) had died and 453/664 (66.7%) had been discharged. Red cell distribution width (RDW) ( χ 2 10.4; p < 0.001 ), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NL) ratio ( χ 2 7.6; p = 0.006 ), and platelet count ( χ 2 5.39; p = 0.02 ), along with age ( χ 2 87.6; p < 0.001 ) and gender ( χ 2 17.3; p < 0.001 ), accurately predicted in-hospital mortality. Hemoglobin levels were not associated with mortality. We also identified the best cut-off for mortality prediction: a NL   ratio > 4.68 was characterized by an odds ratio for in-hospital mortality   OR = 3.40 (2.40-4.82), while the OR for a RDW > 13.7 % was 4.09 (2.87-5.83); a platelet   count > 166,000 /μL was, conversely, protective (OR: 0.45 (0.32-0.63)). Conclusion. Our findings arise the opportunity of stratifying COVID-19 severity according to simple lab parameters, which may drive clinical decisions about monitoring and treatment.

Background: In December 2019, a cluster of unknown etiology pneumonia cases occurred in Wuhan, China leading to identification of the responsible pathogen as SARS-coV-2. Since then, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to the entire world. Computed Tomography (CT) is frequently used to assess severity and complications of COVID-19 pneumonia. The purpose of this study is to compare the CT patterns and clinical characteristics in intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.Design and Methods: This retrospective study included 218 consecutive patients (136 males; 82 females; mean age 63±15 years) with laboratory-confirmed SARS-coV-2. Patients were categorized in two different groups: (a) ICU patients and (b) non-ICU inpatients. We assessed the type and extent of pulmonary opacities on chest CT exams and recorded the information on comorbidities and laboratory values for all patients.Results: Of the 218 patients, 23 (20 males: 3 females; mean age 60 years) required ICU admission, 195 (118 males: 77 females, mean age 64 years) were admitted to a clinical ward. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients were predominantly males (60% versus 83% p=0.03), had more comorbidities, a positive CRP (p=0.04) and higher LDH values (p=0.008). ICU patients’ chest CT demonstrated higher incidence of consolidation (p=0.03), mixed lesions (p=0.01), bilateral opacities (p<0.01) and overall greater lung involvement by consolidation (p=0.02) and GGO (p=0.001).Conclusions: CT imaging features of ICU patients affected by COVID-19 are significantly different compared with non-ICU patients. Identification of CT features could assist in a stratification of the disease severity and supportive treatment.

Introduction Computer-Aided Lung Informatics for Pathology Evaluation and Ratings (CALIPER) software has already been widely used in the evaluation of interstitial lung diseases (ILD) but has not yet been tested in patients affected by COVID-19. Our aim was to use it to describe the relationship between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcome and the CALIPER-detected pulmonary vascular-related structures (VRS). Materials and methodsWe performed a multicentric retrospective study enrolling 570 COVID-19 patients who performed a chest CT in emergency settings in two different institutions. Fifty-three age-and sex-matched healthy controls were also identified. Chest CTs were analyzed with CALIPER identifying the percentage of VRS over the total lung parenchyma. Patients were followed for up to 72 days recording mortality and required intensity of care. Results There was a statistically significant difference in VRS between COVID-19-positive patients and controls (median (iqr) 4.05 (3.74) and 1.57 (0.40) respectively, p = 0.0001). VRS showed an increasing trend with the severity of care, p < 0.0001. The univariate Cox regression model showed that VRS increase is a risk factor for mortality (HR 1.17, p < 0.0001). The multivariate analysis demonstrated that VRS is an independent explanatory factor of mortality along with age (HR 1.13, p < 0.0001). Conclusion Our study suggests that VRS increases with the required intensity of care, and it is an independent explanatory factor for mortality. Key Points• The percentage of vascular-related structure volume (VRS) in the lung is significatively increased in COVID-19 patients.• VRS showed an increasing trend with the required intensity of care, test for trend p< 0.0001.• Univariate and multivariate Cox models showed that VRS is a significant and independent explanatory factor of mortality.

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