A model is developed to aid in determining examination schedules for the detection of an age-dependent disease. It is shown that in an optimal schedule the interval between examinations is proportional to the square root of the age-specific incidence probability of the disease. To illustrate the methodology, optimal schedules are developed for breast cancer examinations.
Radiation exposures of several mammographic imaging systems, including (a) industrial film, xeroradiographic plates, the Du Pont Lo-Dose vacuum-cassette screen-film combination exposed with a molybdenum target tube and (b) xeroradiographic plates exposed with a tungsten target, were investigated with a thin-window ionization chamber and a range of exposures for different breast sizes was determined for each technique. The Lo-Dose system was found to provide high-quality diagnostic images with minimal patient exposure.
Annual breast cancer examination programs are known to yield favorable survival statistics, presumably because of early disease detection. Earlier detection may be possible if examinations are scheduled more frequently. Since empirical evaluation of many such schedules is impractical, a mathematical model is used to obtain theoretical evaluations. Calculations using this model indicate that a semi‐annual examination program may detect cancer significantly earlier than an annual examination program. Also, for mass screening programs, there appears to be a slight economic advantage if examination frequency is a function of age rather than fixed throughout life.
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