Research background: There are several methods to construct a price index for infrequently traded real estate assets (mainly residential, but also office and land). The main concern to construct a valid and unbiased price index is to address the problem of heterogeneity of real estate or put differently to control for both observable and unobservable quality attributes. The one most frequently used is probably the hedonic regression methodology (classic, but recently also spatial and quantile regression). An alternative approach to control for unobservable differences in assets’ quality is provided by repeat sales methodology, where price changes are tracked based on differences in prices of given asset sold twice (or multiple times) within the study period. The latter approach is applied in renown S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller house price indices. Purpose of the article: The goal of the paper is to assess the applicability of repeat sales methodology for a major housing market in Poland. Previous studies used the hedonic methodology or mix adjustment techniques, and applied for major metropolitan areas. The most widely known example is the set of quarterly house price indices constructed by NBP — especially for the primary and secondary market. The repeat sales methodology has not been adopted with significant success to date — mainly because of concern regarding relative infrequency of transactions on the housing market in most metropolitan areas (thus a potentially small sample of repeated sales). Methods: The study uses data on repeat sales of residential transactions in Krakow from 2003 to 2015. We apply different specifications of repeat sales index construction and compare respective values to the hedonic price index for Krakow estimated by NBP. Findings & Value added: Findings suggest that repeat sales house sales indices can be used to track price dynamics for major metropolitan areas in Poland. The study suggests problems that need to be addressed in order to get unbiased results — mainly data collection mechanism and estimation procedure.
The paper presents a proposal for an approach to the valuation of forest, wooded and bushy real estate located in cities, which allows for the assessment of the impact of natural, protective and landscape factors on the value of this type of real estate. The main problem in the valuation of this type of real estate is the correct estimation of the impact on the value of the non-production factors described above. Considering the above, the main goal of the study was to identify the factors influencing the prices and value of forested, wooded and shrubby properties located in urbanized areas. The supplementary goal was to confirm the suitability of the methods and statistical models used in the study for similar measurements. By implementing the adopted goals, the article presents an analysis of the impact of these factors on the prices and value of real estate. The study covered the southwest part of the city of Kraków, located between the Vistula River and the Kraków-Rzeszów railway line in the north and east, and the southern and western border of the city. Urban forests perform mainly social functions, constituting only a marginal source of wood raw material. The results of the study showed that, in the case of similar properties, prices are significantly influenced by factors such as location, type and nature of the surroundings, form of access to the road, landscape and recreational values, manner of use and development status, as well as the permissible form of development, which is a measure of the profitability of timber production. The work ended with a discussion on the results and proposed directions for further research.
Research Highlights: In the paper, we explore systematic discrepancy between sale prices and values of forest properties in Poland. We argue that the systematic valuation bias found is partially caused by the simplified parametric appraisal methodology currently used in Poland. Background and Objectives: Most of the forests in Poland are state-owned, but in recent decades, the market for private forest properties has been dynamically growing. In the paper, we investigate the relations between the actual transaction prices, and the estimated value of forest properties in selected regions in Poland. We hypothesize that sale prices systematically deviate from valuations. An additional question arises regarding the determinants of forest property prices. We hypothesize that due to asymmetric information positive amenities are not fully capitalized in property prices in Poland. Materials and Methods: In the paper, we adopt two regression models used to investigate the valuation accuracy and bias. We test the hypothesis that valuations are unbiased estimates of transaction prices. Results: The results indicate that market prices for forest properties systematically differ from estimated values. Conclusions: Systematic deviation of forest property sales prices from market values may contribute to the imperfect information available to the market participants, especially when information is asymmetrically distributed between buyers and sellers. This may confirm the hypothesis that sellers are not fully aware of the advantages of the property being sold, and provide further explanations for large systematic differences between sales prices and valuations based on parametric valuation methods used in Poland.
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