One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.
Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region.
Anthropogenic freshwater salinization affects thousands of lakes worldwide, and yet little is known about how salt loading may shift timing of lake stratification and spring mixing in dimictic lakes. Here, we investigate the impact of salinization on mixing in Lakes Mendota and Monona, Wisconsin, by deploying under‐ice buoys to record salinity gradients, using an analytical approach to quantify salinity thresholds that prevent spring mixing, and running an ensemble of vertical one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake models (GLM, GOTM, and Simstrat) to investigate the long‐term impact of winter salt loading on mixing and stratification. We found that spring salinity gradients between surface and bottom waters persist up to a month after ice‐off, and that theory predicts a salinity gradient of 1.3–1.4 g kg−1 would prevent spring mixing. Numerical models project that salt loading delays spring mixing and increases water column stability, with ramifications for oxygenation of bottom waters, biogeochemistry, and lake habitability.
Lakes are known to be strongly affected by climate change as a result of their sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. The combined response of urban lakes to climatic changes and to urbanization of the catchment may be further altered by water quality management measures. We studied Lake Tegel in Berlin, Germany as a representative urban lake profoundly influenced by intense water management measures and a resulting complex hydrodynamic situation: Lake Tegel is fed by nutrient-rich river discharges and effluents from a phosphorus elimination plant (PEP). We estimated changes in water temperatures, the Wedderburn number, and the buoyancy frequency, as well as concentrations of dissolved oxygen and phosphate under climate change using a one-dimensional vertical hydrodynamic model coupled to a water quality model. Further, we investigated how four management scenarios with varying discharges of the PEP could affect the lake system. In all simulations, water temperatures increased and summer stratification extended. The modeling results demonstrated that the water management system buffers the high nutrient supply from the river inflow and can effectively mitigate negative effects of climate change on Lake Tegel, thus highlighting its importance for the lake ecosystem.
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