A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.

There are many incentives for applying a crop model on a regional scale, i.e. over an area larger than that for which it has been developed. This is what we call "spatialising" a crop model. These large areas can have very heterogeneous soil, climate and management practices. Consequently, spatialising a crop model can raise serious problems. One set arises from the fact that the basic concepts, hypotheses and validity domains of crop models are derived on the plot scale and may not apply on a larger scale. Another set arises from the lack of adequate and sufficient data to run the model on a regional scale. The workshop held in Toulouse (France) on 14-15 January 2002 dealt with the topic of spatialising crop models. The present paper is a comprehensive summary of the thoughts we had before, during and after the workshop. crop modelling / scale change / spatial variability

Background and AimsThe impact of a fruit tree's architecture on its performance is still under debate, especially with regard to the definition of varietal ideotypes and the selection of architectural traits in breeding programmes. This study aimed at providing proof that a modelling approach can contribute to this debate, by using in silico exploration of different combinations of traits and their consequences on light interception, here considered as one of the key parameters to optimize fruit tree production.MethodsThe variability of organ geometrical traits, previously described in a bi-parental population, was used to simulate 1- to 5-year-old apple trees (Malus × domestica). Branching sequences along trunks observed during the first year of growth of the same hybrid trees were used to initiate the simulations, and hidden semi-Markov chains previously parameterized were used in subsequent years. Tree total leaf area (TLA) and silhouette to total area ratio (STAR) values were estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was performed, based on a metamodelling approach and a generalized additive model (GAM), to analyse the relative impact of organ geometry and lateral shoot types on STAR.Key ResultsA larger increase over years in TLA mean and variance was generated by varying branching along trunks than by varying organ geometry, whereas the inverse was observed for STAR, where mean values stabilized from year 3 to year 5. The internode length and leaf area had the highest impact on STAR, whereas long sylleptic shoots had a more significant effect than proleptic shoots. Although the GAM did not account for interactions, the additive effects of the geometrical factors explained >90% of STAR variation, but much less in the case of branching factors.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that the proposed modelling approach could contribute to screening architectural traits and their relative impact on tree performance, here viewed through light interception. Even though trait combinations and antagonism will need further investigation, the approach opens up new perspectives for breeding and genetic selection to be assisted by varietal ideotype definition.

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1Numerical plant models can predict the outcome of plant traits modifications resulting from genetic variations, on plant performance, by simulating physiological processes and their interaction with the environment. Optimization methods complement those models to design ideotypes, i.e. ideal values of a set of plant traits resulting in optimal adaptation for given combinations of environment and management, mainly through the maximization of a performance criteria (e.g. yield, light interception). As use of simulation models gains momentum in plant breeding, numerical experiments must be carefully engineered to provide accurate and attainable results, rooting them in biological reality. Here, we propose a multi-objective optimization formulation that includes a metric of performance, returned by the numerical model, and a metric of feasibility, accounting for correlations between traits based on field observations. We applied this approach to two contrasting models: a process-based crop model of sunflower and a functional-structural plant model of apple trees. In both cases, the method successfully characterized key plant traits and identified a continuum of optimal solutions, ranging from the most feasible to the most efficient. The present study thus provides successful proof of concept for this enhanced modeling approach, which identified paths for desirable trait modification, including direction and intensity.