ABSTRACT. The Lake Imandra watershed is located in one of the most developed regions in the Arctic-the Kola Peninsula of Russia. Approximately 300 000 people live on the roughly 27 000 km 2 watershed, making it one of the most densely populated areas of the Arctic. Most of the people are involved in large-scale mineral extraction and processing and the infrastructure needed to support this industry. This paper reports the results of a pilot project staged for the Lake Imandra watershed that has put human dynamics within the framework of ecosystem change to integrate available information and formulate conceptual models of likely future scenarios. The observation period is one of both rapid economic growth and human expansion, with an overall economic decline in the past decade. We are applying the Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) approach to integrate information, identify information gaps, generate likely future scenarios, and link scientific findings to the decision-making process. We found an increasingly vulnerable human population in varying states of awareness about their local environment and fully cognizant of their economic troubles, with many determined to attempt maintenance of relatively high population densities in the near future even as many residents of northern Russia migrate south. A series of workshops have involved the citizens and local decision makers in an attempt to tap their knowledge of the region and to increase their awareness about the linkages between the socioeconomic and ecological components.Key words: watershed analysis, Kola, ecological economics, adaptive management, development scenarios RÉSUMÉ. Le bassin hydrographique du lac Imandra est situé dans l'une des régions les plus développées de l'Arctique, soit la presqu'île de Kola, en Russie. Près de 300 000 personnes vivent dans la zone du bassin qui couvre environ 27 000 km 2 , ce qui en fait l'une des régions les plus peuplées de l'Arctique. La plupart des habitants travaillent dans l'extraction et le traitement miniers à grande échelle ainsi que dans l'infrastructure qui soutient cette industrie. Le présent article rapporte les résultats d'un projet pilote mis sur pied pour le bassin du lac Imandra, projet qui a placé la dynamique humaine dans le cadre du changement des écosystèmes, afin d'intégrer l'information disponible et de formuler des modèles conceptuels de scénarios probables dans l'avenir. La période d'observation en est une à la fois de croissance économique et d'expansion démographique rapides, suivie d'un déclin général au cours de la dernière décennie. On a recours à la méthode d'évaluation participative intégrée (EPI) pour intégrer l'information, y dégager des lacunes, générer des scénarios probables dans l'avenir et établir un lien entre résultats de la recherche et processus décisionnel. On a trouvé qu'il y avait une population humaine de plus en plus vulnérable qui était sensibilisée à divers degrés aux problèmes locaux de l'environnement et pleinement consciente des difficultés économiques, popula...
PREFACEn 1993, radioactive waste-management practices of the former Soviet Union (FSU) came un-I, der increasing international scrutiny after Russian scientists disclosed dumped-nuclear-waste ites in the Kara and Barents seas that contravened the London Convention ban on radioactive waste disposal at sea. The U.S. response was to fund the Office of Naval Research Arctic Nuclear Waste Assessment Program (ANWAP) to (1) quantify the types, amounts, and rates of release of radionuclides from marine disposal sites and Russian riverine sources leading to Arctic waters; (2) evaluate the transport pathways and ultimate fate of the radionuclide contaminants; and (3) identify any long-term monitoring strategies as needed. ANWAP began funding basic physical, geochemical, and biological oceanographic research in the Arctic in 1993.By early 1995 the second year of ANWAP research was well under way and planning for the final ANWAP funding cycle emphasized the need to better coordinate and integrate the activities and results of the 85 research projects into a risk-assessment framework. The goal: to use data sets in a rigorous evaluation process to make dose estimates for potential human and ecological impacts, particularly in Alaska, from the nuclear wastes the FSU had dumped in the Arctic. A Risk Assessment Integration Group (RAIG) was formed to conduct the assessment. The RAIG recognized at the outset of this risk-assessment phase that the risk analysis would have to depend on available ANWAP data and other published data sets, and that ongoing research would continue to generate new data even after the data cutoff point for timely preparation of the risk assessment. The RAIG has established an evaluation framework that, through an ongoing iterative process, can be enhanced as new information becomes available.The risk assessment follows a traditional, internationally accepted radiological risk-assessment process. It uses models to make predictions, but also incorporates actual field measurements and laboratory data obtained from ANWAP scientists and the broader national and international scientific community. The risk-assessment team involved key scientists from Alaska (Douglas Dasher, Department of Environmental Conservation, and Todd O'Hara, North Slope Borough Department of Wildlife Management); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (David Layton, Mark Mount, Florence Harrison, and John Knezovich); Sandia National Laboratories (Rip Anderson, Mel Marietta, Leo Gomez, and Palmer Vaughn); Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories (William Templeton and Bruce Napier); and the Office of Naval Research (Marilyn Varela). This integrating team (the RAIG) identified discrete areas of focus and authorship for various components of the risk assessment; in the preparation of this report, the team relied upon the input of key ANWAP Principal Investigators, some of whose information was timely enough for use, and some not. Each section of the report identifies the authors. Although inputs from Russian contributors were instrumental in...
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