Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere–atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of droughtinduced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function

Despite decades of research on plant drought tolerance, the physiological mechanisms by which trees succumb to drought are still under debate. We report results from an experiment designed to separate and test the current leading hypotheses of tree mortality. We show that piñon pine (Pinus edulis) trees can die of both hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, and that during drought, the loss of conductivity and carbohydrate reserves can also co-occur. Hydraulic constraints on plant carbohydrate use determined survival time: turgor loss in the phloem limited access to carbohydrate reserves, but hydraulic control of respiration prolonged survival. Our data also demonstrate that hydraulic failure may be associated with loss of adequate tissue carbohydrate content required for osmoregulation, which then promotes failure to maintain hydraulic integrity.

305I.305II.306III.310IV.311V.314VI.316VII.317VIII.318318References318 Summary Model–data comparisons of plant physiological processes provide an understanding of mechanisms underlying vegetation responses to climate. We simulated the physiology of a piñon pine–juniper woodland (Pinus edulis–Juniperus monosperma) that experienced mortality during a 5 yr precipitation‐reduction experiment, allowing a framework with which to examine our knowledge of drought‐induced tree mortality. We used six models designed for scales ranging from individual plants to a global level, all containing state‐of‐the‐art representations of the internal hydraulic and carbohydrate dynamics of woody plants. Despite the large range of model structures, tuning, and parameterization employed, all simulations predicted hydraulic failure and carbon starvation processes co‐occurring in dying trees of both species, with the time spent with severe hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, rather than absolute thresholds per se, being a better predictor of impending mortality. Model and empirical data suggest that limited carbon and water exchanges at stomatal, phloem, and below‐ground interfaces were associated with mortality of both species. The model–data comparison suggests that the introduction of a mechanistic process into physiology‐based models provides equal or improved predictive power over traditional process‐model or empirical thresholds. Both biophysical and empirical modeling approaches are useful in understanding processes, particularly when the models fail, because they reveal mechanisms that are likely to underlie mortality. We suggest that for some ecosystems, integration of mechanistic pathogen models into current vegetation models, and evaluation against observations, could result in a breakthrough capability to simulate vegetation dynamics.

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SummaryTo test the hypothesis that drought predisposes trees to insect attacks, we quantified the effects of water availability on insect attacks, tree resistance mechanisms, and mortality of mature piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma) using an experimental drought study in New Mexico, USA.The study had four replicated treatments (40 9 40 m plot/replicate): removal of 45% of ambient annual precipitation (H 2 OÀ); irrigation to produce 125% of ambient annual precipitation (H 2 O+); a drought control (C) to quantify the impact of the drought infrastructure; and ambient precipitation (A).Piñon began dying 1 yr after drought initiation, with higher mortality in the H 2 OÀ treatment relative to other treatments. Beetles (bark/twig) were present in 92% of dead trees. Resin duct density and area were more strongly affected by treatments and more strongly associated with piñon mortality than direct measurements of resin flow. For juniper, treatments had no effect on insect resistance or attacks, but needle browning was highest in the H 2 OÀ treatment.Our results provide strong evidence that ! 1 yr of severe drought predisposes piñon to insect attacks and increases mortality, whereas 3 yr of the same drought causes partial canopy loss in juniper.

Drought-related tree mortality occurs globally and may increase in the future, but we lack sufficient mechanistic understanding to accurately predict it. Here we present the first field assessment of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality in an ecosystem-scale rainfall manipulation of a piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We measured transpiration (E) and modelled the transpiration rate initiating hydraulic failure (Ecrit). We predicted that isohydric piñon would experience mortality after prolonged periods of severely limited gas exchange as required to avoid hydraulic failure; anisohydric juniper would also avoid hydraulic failure, but sustain gas exchange due to its greater cavitation resistance. After 1 year of treatment, 67% of droughted mature piñon died with concomitant infestation by bark beetles (Ips confusus) and bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma spp.); no mortality occurred in juniper or in control piñon. As predicted, both species avoided hydraulic failure, but safety margins from Ecrit were much smaller in piñon, especially droughted piñon, which also experienced chronically low hydraulic conductance. The defining characteristic of trees that died was a 7 month period of near-zero gas exchange, versus 2 months for surviving piñon. Hydraulic limits to gas exchange, not hydraulic failure per se, promoted droughtrelated mortality in piñon pine.

Leaf gas-exchange regulation plays a central role in the ability of trees to survive drought, but forecasting the future response of gas exchange to prolonged drought is hampered by our lack of knowledge regarding potential acclimation. To investigate whether leaf gas-exchange rates and sensitivity to drought acclimate to precipitation regimes, we measured the seasonal variations of leaf gas exchange in a mature piñon-juniper Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma woodland after 3 years of precipitation manipulation. We compared trees receiving ambient precipitation with those in an irrigated treatment (+30% of ambient precipitation) and a partial rainfall exclusion (-45%). Treatments significantly affected leaf water potential, stomatal conductance and photosynthesis for both isohydric piñon and anisohydric juniper. Leaf gas exchange acclimated to the precipitation regimes in both species. Maximum gas-exchange rates under well-watered conditions, leaf-specific hydraulic conductance and leaf water potential at zero photosynthetic assimilation all decreased with decreasing precipitation. Despite their distinct drought resistance and stomatal regulation strategies, both species experienced hydraulic limitation on leaf gas exchange when precipitation decreased, leading to an intraspecific trade-off between maximum photosynthetic assimilation and resistance of photosynthesis to drought. This response will be most detrimental to the carbon balance of piñon under predicted increases in aridity in the southwestern USA.Key-words: acclimation; carbon balance; hydraulic limitation; photosynthesis; piñon-juniper woodland; precipitation manipulation; stomatal conductance; water stress.

Abstract. Climate models predict that water limited regions around the world will become drier and warmer in the near future, including southwestern North America. We developed a large-scale experimental system that allows testing of stand level impacts of precipitation changes. Four treatments were applied to 1600 m 2 plots (40 m 3 40 m), each with three replicates in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniper monosperma) ecosystem. These species have extensive root systems, requiring large-scale manipulation to effectively alter soil water availability. Treatments consisted of: (1) irrigation plots that receive supplemental water additions, (2) drought plots that receive 55% of ambient rainfall, (3) covercontrol plots that receive ambient precipitation, but allow determination of treatment infrastructure artifacts, and (4) ambient control plots. Our drought structures effectively reduced soil water potential and volumetric water content compared to the ambient, cover-control, and water addition plots. Drought and cover-control plots experienced an average increase in maximum soil and ground-level air temperature of 1-48C during the growing season compared to ambient plots, and concurrent short-term diurnal increases in maximum air temperature were also observed directly above and below plastic structures. Our drought and irrigation treatments significantly influenced tree predawn water potential and canopy transpiration, with drought treatment trees exhibiting significant decreases in physiological function compared to ambient and irrigated trees. Supplemental irrigation resulted in a significant increase in both plant water potential and canopy transpiration compared to trees in the other treatments. This experimental design allows manipulation of plant water stress at the tree/stand scale, permits a wide range of drought conditions, and provides prolonged drought conditions comparable to historical droughts in the pastdrought events for which wide-spread mortality in both these species was observed.