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We present a June-July drought reconstruction based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the Balkan Peninsula over the period 730-2015 CE. The reconstruction is developed using a composite Pinus heldreichii tree-ring width chronology, from a high-elevation network of eight sites in the Pindus Mountains in northwest Greece, composed of living trees and relict wood. The dataset includes the ring width series of Europe's currently oldest known living tree, dendrochronologically dated to be more than 1075 years old. The spatial coverage of the reconstruction is improved by using an averaged gridded SPI data target derived from a response field that is located north of the study region. Justification for this approach includes the remoteness of instrumental data, the spatial variability of precipitation and synoptic scale circulation patterns. Over the past 1286 years, there have been 51 dry and 43 pluvial events. The driest year during the 1286-year-long period was 1660 and the wettest year was 1482. Comparison with shorter reconstructions and documentary evidence validates the new reconstruction, and provides additional insight into socioeconomic impacts and spatial patterns of extreme events. Fifty-nine of 72 previously undescribed extremes occurred prior to the 17th century. The new reconstruction reveals long-term changes in the number of extremes, including substantially fewer drought and pluvial events in the 20th century. Additional tests on the long-term effects of age structure, replication and covariance changes support the heteroscedastic nature of the reconstructed hydroclimatic extremes.

Key message Long Bosnian pine chronologies from different mountains are shaped by different climatic parameters and can help identify past drought events and reconstruct landscape histories. Abstract We developed a 735-year-long Pinus heldreichii chronology from the southern distribution limit of the species, expanding the available database of long Bosnian pine chronologies. Tree-ring growth was mainly positively correlated with growing degree days (GDD: r1950–2018 = 0.476) while higher temperatures during both winter and growing season also enhanced growth (TWT: r1950–2018 = 0.361 and TGS: 0.289, respectively). Annual precipitation, during both calendar and water years, had a negative but weaker impact on annual tree growth. The newly developed chronology correlates well with chronologies developed from the neighboring mountains. The years with ring width index (RWI) lower than the average were found to correspond to cool years with dry summers. Still, the newly developed chronology was able to capture severe drought events, such as those in 1660, 1687, and 1725. Several old living trees had internal scars presumably caused by fires. Therefore, old mature trees could be used for fire history reconstruction in addition to climate reconstruction. Although the presence of lightning scars indicates an important natural agent of fire ignition, human activities associated with animal grazing could also be an underlying reason for fires in the region.

The present study illustrates the situation of the genus Abies in the Mediterranean and in Greece, focusing in detail on the oromediterranean forest of the southern Peloponnese, at Mt. Taygetos. The existing pattern of forest dynamics (mosaic cycle) and also the timberline dynamics are presented and explained. Since fir forests are highly susceptible to drought-related impacts (fire and fir dieback: insect outbreaks/ forest pathogens), the analysis of the present situation is put into perspective by looking at the role of direct human influence and the climatic fluctuations of the past, taking into consideration dendrochronological findings and archival climate records. In view of climate warming the question is whether in recent decades the fingerprints of climate change can already be observed in the Greek fir forests. The study concludes that drought periods and climatic extremes have been an essential part of Greek climate for many centuries, causing high natural forest vulnerability. Therefore, fir dieback and fires are not a new phenomenon either – but in recent decades the accumulation of fuel, caused by land abandonment, has increased the danger of large wildfires. Nevertheless, the Greek mountain forests are highly endangered by increases in aridity and/or more frequent climate extremes (heat waves), together with increased risk of wildfires. Recommendations for an active forest management (counteracting expected adverse effects of climate change, by focusing on the establishment of an Abies cephalonica Loudon /Pinus nigra J. F. Arnold mosaic cycle) and further scientific research are provided.

To establish design data, a study was undertaken to determine expected hurricane tide elevations, durations and frequencies of occurrence for events of various magnitudes in the vicinity of a proposed development at Padre Island, Texas A set of synthetic hurricanes with selected sizes, translation speeds, wind fields, and pressure patterns were generated corresponding to various frequencies of occurrence of the CPI Two numerical computer models were developed to determine the offshore surge hydrograph and to route the surge through the bay waters for each synthetic hurricane moving directly over the site Results included storm tide hydrographs at selected locations near the development Synthetic storms were also routed across the coast at locations north and south of the site and storm hydrographs again computed.