Detailed screening data for the 40- to 49-year age group of all Swedish trials should be analyzed to specifically estimate the natural history and performance of screening in this age group.
Based on an extensive cost‐effectiveness analysis, the Dutch nation‐wide breast cancer screening programme started in 1990, providing a biennial screen examination to women aged 50 to 69 years. The programme is monitored by the National Evaluation Team, which annually collects tabulated regional evaluation data to determine performance indicators. This study presents (trends in) the outcomes of initial and subsequent screening rounds, 1990–1995, and compares them to the predictions of the cost‐effectiveness‐analysis. Up to 1996, 88% of the target population was covered by the programme and more than 2.4 × 106 women were invited. The overall attendance rate was 77.5% with little differences between screening rounds and age groups; the highest rate was found in non‐urbanised areas (82.4%). Of 1,000 initially (and 2 years thereafter) screened women, 13.4 (6.6) were referred for further investigation, 9.7 (4.4) were biopsied and 6.4 (3.4) had breast cancer. The positive predictive values of screen test and biopsy were 47% (51%) and 66% (78%), respectively. DCIS was diagnosed in 0.9 (0.5) and invasive cancers ≤10 mm in 1.5 (1.0) per 1,000 screens. Lymph node metastases were found in 28% (24%) of the invasive cancers. Except the increasing attendance, which was much higher than expected, the results were fairly constant over the years. Contrary to initial screens, the results of subsequent screens did not fulfil expectations with regard to breast cancer detection and tumour size distribution. We conclude that the nation‐wide screening programme is being implemented successfully. Given the results, the programme should contribute to a substantial breast cancer mortality reduction in the future. The discrepancy between observed and expected results in subsequent screens has to be watched carefully. Int. J. Cancer 75:694–698, 1998.© 1998 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.
Cancer of the colon and rectum is one of the most frequent malignancies both in the US and Europe. Standard palliative therapy is based on 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid combinations, with or without oxaliplatin or irinotecan, given intravenously. Oral medication has the advantage of greater patient convenience and acceptance and potential cost savings. S-1 is a new oral fluorinated pyrimidine derivative. In a nonrandomised phase II study, patients with advanced/metastatic colorectal cancer were treated with S-1 at 40 mg m À2 b.i.d. for 28 consecutive days, repeated every 5 weeks, but by amendment the dose was reduced to 35 mg m À2 during the study because of a higher than expected number of severe adverse drug reactions. In total 47 patients with colorectal cancer were included. In the 37 evaluable patients there were nine partial responses (24%), 17 stable diseases (46%) and 11 patients had progressive disease (30%). Diarrhoea occurred frequently and was often severe: in the 40 and 35 mg m À2 group, respectively, 38 and 35% of the patients experienced grade 3 -4 diarrhoea. The other toxicities were limited and manageable. S-1 is active in advanced colorectal cancer, but in order to establish a safer dose the drug should be subject to further investigations.
Although breast-cancer screening programmes are now being introduced it is still debated whether this is an appropriate policy for all European countries. Taking into account empirical data from 2 regional pilot screening projects, this study has evaluated the effects and costs of a nationwide breast-cancer screening programme in Germany. Special attention was paid to the decentralized German health-care system and to the influence of attendance, interval and age group. The recent results of the analysis of the Swedish randomized screening trials were used to estimate the improvement in prognosis after early detection of breast cancer. Our analysis shows that a programme providing for the screening of women aged 50-69 at 2-year intervals might be expected to result in a decrease in mortality from breast cancer estimated at 11% for the total German population, representing 2,100 deaths from breast cancer prevented each year. The cost per life-year gained was assessed at between DM 18,800 and DM 25,300 for this scenario; 2 to 3 times less favourable than in the UK and The Netherlands. The sensitivity of mammography was estimated to be 12% lower than in The Netherlands and the attendance rate was calculated at 47% on average. A greater effort to ensure the quality of the screening programme and to improve the invitation system might finally lead to much better results. The mortality reduction might be as much as 18% if the attendance and the sensitivity of the screening could be improved to the Dutch level.
Study objective -To estimate quantitatively the impact of the quality of mammographic screening (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) on the effects and costs of nationwide breast cancer screening. Design -Three plausible "quality" scenarios for a biennial breast cancer screening programme for women aged 50-69 in Germany were analysed in terms of costs and effects using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model on breast cancer screening and the natural history ofbreast cancer. Firstly, sensitivity and specificity in the expected situation (or "baseline" scenario) were estimated from a model based analysis of empirical data from 35 000 screening examinations in two German pilot projects. In the second "high quality" scenario, these properties were based on the more favourable diagnostic results from breast cancer screening projects and the nationwide programme in The Netherlands. Thirdly, a worst case, "low quality" hypothetical scenario with a 25% lower sensitivity than that experienced in The Netherlands was analysed. Setting -The epidemiological and social situation in Germany in relation to mass screening for breast cancer. Results -In the "baseline" scenario, an 11% reduction in breast cancer mortality was expected in the total German female population, ie 2100 breast cancer deaths would be prevented per year. It was estimated that the "high quality" scenario, based on Dutch experience, would lead to the prevention of an additional 200 deaths per year and would also cut the number of false positive biopsy results by half. The cost per life year gained varied from Deutsche mark (DM) 15 000 in the "high quality" scenario to DM 21000 in the "low quality" setting. Conclusions -Up to 20% of the total costs of a screening programme can be spent on quality improvement in order to achieve a substantially higher reduction in mortality and reduce undesirable side effects while retainiing the same cost effectiveness ratio as that estimated from the German data. (J7 Epidemiol Community Health 1997;51: 180-186) Breast cancer screening for women aged 50 and over is being implemented in a large number of European countries. These programmes aim to achieve a relatively high level of quality by means of strict organisation, training, and evaluation.'2 The definition of screening quality is often narrowed down to two propertiessensitivity (ie the capability of accurately detecting cancer at a screening examination and specificity (the ability to pinpoint accurately those women without breast cancer). High sensitivity can be assumed to be one of the key elements in achieving a reduction in breast cancer mortality, while high specificity will reduce the negative side effects of screening.3The nationwide programmes in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands have made a good start in providing facilities which ensure high standards. It is not certain, however, that these high standards can be achieved in all countries or programmes, especially where the organisation of screening is not centralised. Where screeni...
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