Earth-sized exoplanets that transit nearby, late-spectral-type red dwarfs will be prime targets for atmospheric characterization in the coming decade. Such systems, however, are difficult to find via widefield transit surveys like Kepler or TESS. Consequently, the presence of such transiting planets is unexplored and the occurrence rates of short-period Earth-sized planets around late-M dwarfs remain poorly constrained. Here, we present the deepest photometric monitoring campaign of 22 nearby late-M dwarf stars, using data from over 500 nights on seven 1–2 m class telescopes. Our survey includes all known single quiescent northern late-M dwarfs within 15 pc. We use transit injection-and-recovery tests to quantify the completeness of our survey, successfully identify most (>80%) transiting short-period (0.5–1 days) super-Earths (R >1.9 R
⊕), and are sensitive (∼50%) to transiting Earth-sized planets (1.0–1.2 R
⊕). Our high sensitivity to transits with a near-zero false-positive rate demonstrates an efficient survey strategy. Our survey does not yield a transiting planet detection, yet it provides the most sensitive upper limits on transiting planets orbiting our target stars. Finally, we explore multiple hypotheses about the occurrence rates of short-period planets (from Earth-sized planets to giant planets) around late-M dwarfs. We show, for example, that giant planets with short periods (<1 day) are uncommon around our target stars. Our data set provides some insight into the occurrence rates of short-period planets around TRAPPIST-1-like stars, and our results can help test planetary formation and system evolution models, as well as guide future observations of nearby late-M dwarfs.
e Eridani, the fifth-closest Sun-like star, hosts at least three planets and could possibly harbor more. However, the veracity of the planet candidates in the system and its full planetary architecture remain unknown. Here we analyze the planetary architecture of e Eridani via DYNAMITE, a method providing an integrative assessment of the system architecture (and possibly yet-undetected planets) by combining statistical, exoplanet-population-level knowledge with incomplete but specific information available on the system. DYNAMITE predicts the most likely location of an additional planet in the system based on the Kepler population demographic information from more than 2000 planets. Additionally, we analyze the dynamical stability of e Eridani system via N-body simulations. Our DYNAMITE and dynamical stability analyses provide support for planet candidates g, c, and f, and also predict one additional planet candidate with an orbital period between 549–733 days, in the habitable zone of the system. We find that planet candidate f, if it exists, would also lie in the habitable zone. Our dynamical stability analysis also shows that the e Eridani planetary eccentricities, as reported, do not allow for a stable system, suggesting that they are lower. We introduce a new statistical approach for estimating the equilibrium and surface temperatures of exoplanets, based on a prior from the planetary albedo distribution. e Eridani is a rich planetary system with a possibility of containing two potentially habitable planets, and its vicinity to our solar system makes it an important target for future imaging studies and biosignature searches.
Transiting planets in the nearby TRAPPIST-1 system provide rare examples of habitable zone (HZ), Earth-sized planets that can be characterized via transmission spectroscopy. However, these present-day HZ planets likely formed interior to HZ and probably underwent an evolution very different from that of Earth. We present the integrative analysis of the planetary architecture of the recently discovered planetary system SPECULOOS-2. Our analysis answers the question: If there are additional exoplanets in the SPECULOOS-2 system, what are their orbital and physical properties? We predict an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone (P ∼ 14.5–18.2 days). In contrast to TRAPPIST-1e, this predicted planet most likely completed its formation inside the habitable zone. If confirmed, this planet will offer an Earth-sized, habitable zone planet that is likely to have an evolutionary path more similar to Earth than those in the TRAPPIST-1 system.
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