Since the Oxford Classification of IgA nephropathy (IgAN)

IMPORTANCE Although IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common glomerulonephritis in the world, there is no validated tool to predict disease progression. This limits patient-specific risk stratification and treatment decisions, clinical trial recruitment, and biomarker validation. OBJECTIVE To derive and externally validate a prediction model for disease progression in IgAN that can be applied at the time of kidney biopsy in multiple ethnic groups worldwide. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We derived and externally validated a prediction model using clinical and histologic risk factors that are readily available in clinical practice. Large, multi-ethnic cohorts of adults with biopsy-proven IgAN were included from Europe, North America, China, and Japan. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the risk of a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage kidney disease, and were evaluated using the R 2 D measure, Akaike information criterion (AIC), C statistic, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and calibration plots. RESULTS The study included 3927 patients; mean age, 35.4 (interquartile range, 28.0-45.4) years; and 2173 (55.3%) were men. The following prediction models were created in a derivation cohort of 2781 patients: a clinical model that included eGFR, blood pressure, and proteinuria at biopsy; and 2 full models that also contained the MEST histologic score, age, medication use, and either racial/ethnic characteristics (white, Japanese, or Chinese) or no racial/ethnic characteristics, to allow application in other ethnic groups. Compared with the clinical model, the full models with and without race/ethnicity had better R 2 D (26.3% and 25.3%, respectively, vs 20.3%) and AIC (6338 and 6379, respectively, vs 6485), significant increases in C statistic from 0.78 to 0.82 and 0.81, respectively (ΔC, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.03-0.04 and ΔC, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.02-0.03, respectively), and significant improvement in reclassification as assessed by the NRI (0.18; 95% CI, 0.07-0.29 and 0.51; 95% CI, 0.39-0.62, respectively) and IDI (0.07; 95% CI, 0.06-0.08 and 0.06; 95% CI, 0.05-0.06, respectively). External validation was performed in a cohort of 1146 patients. For both full models, the C statistics (0.82; 95% CI, 0.81-0.83 with race/ethnicity; 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82 without race/ethnicity) and R 2 D (both 35.3%) were similar or better than in the validation cohort, with excellent calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, the 2 full prediction models were shown to be accurate and validated methods for predicting disease progression and patient risk stratification in IgAN in multi-ethnic cohorts, with additional applications to clinical trial design and biomarker research.

The Oxford Classification of IgA nephropathy does not account for glomerular crescents. However, studies that reported no independent predictive role of crescents on renal outcomes excluded individuals with severe renal insufficiency. In a large IgA nephropathy cohort pooled from four retrospective studies, we addressed crescents as a predictor of renal outcomes and determined whether the fraction of crescent-containing glomeruli associates with survival from either a $50% decline in eGFR or ESRD (combined event) adjusting for covariates used in the original Oxford study. The 3096 subjects studied had an initial mean6SD eGFR of 78629 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and median (interquartile range) proteinuria of 1.2 (0.7-2.3) g/d, and 36% of subjects had cellular or fibrocellular crescents. Overall, crescents predicted a higher risk of a combined event, although this remained significant only in patients not receiving immunosuppression. Having crescents in at least one sixth or one fourth of glomeruli associated with a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for a combined event of 1.63 (1.10 to 2.43) or 2.29 (1.35 to 3.91), respectively, in all individuals. Furthermore, having crescents in at least one fourth of glomeruli independently associated with a combined event in patients receiving and not receiving immunosuppression. We propose adding the following crescent scores to the Oxford Classification: C0 (no crescents); C1 (crescents in less than one fourth of glomeruli), identifying patients at increased risk of poor outcome without immunosuppression; and C2 (crescents in over one fourth of glomeruli), identifying patients at even greater risk of progression, even with immunosuppression.

SummaryBackground and objectives The Oxford classification of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) includes mesangial hypercellularity, endocapillary hypercellularity, segmental glomerulosclerosis (S), and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (T) as prognosticators. The value of extracapillary proliferation (Ex) was not addressed. Because the Oxford classification excludes patients with urinary protein Ͻ0.5 g/d and eGFR Ͻ30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 at biopsy, the significance of Ex should be confirmed by validation cohorts that include more rapidly progressive cases. We present such a study. Design, setting, participants, & measurementsThe significance of pathologic features for development endstage renal failure (ESRF) was examined by multivariate analysis in 702 patients with IgAN. The association of Ex with kidney survival was examined by univariate analysis in 416 patients who met the Oxford criteria and 286 who did not, separately.Results In a multivariate model, S and T were significantly associated with ESRF. With addition of Ex, not S but Ex was significant for ESRF. In univariate analysis, kidney survival was significantly lower in patients with Ex than in those without, in patients who did not meet the Oxford criteria, but such a difference was not found in patients who met it. ConclusionsThe prognostic significance of Ex was evident in our cohort. It seems that Ex did not emerge from the Oxford classification as a prognosticator because of exclusion of severe cases (eGFR Ͻ30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We suggest that extracapillary proliferation be included in the next version of the Oxford classification of IgAN to widen the scope of the classification.

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