Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AstraZeneca).

Aging involves a decline in neural function that contributes to cognitive impairment and disease. However, the mechanisms underlying the transition from a young-and-healthy to aged-and-dysfunctional brain are not well understood. Here, we report breakdown of the vascular blood-brain barrier (BBB) in aging humans and rodents, which begins as early as middle age and progresses to the end of the life span. Gain-of-function and loss-of-function manipulations show that this BBB dysfunction triggers hyperactivation of transforming growth factor–β (TGFβ) signaling in astrocytes, which is necessary and sufficient to cause neural dysfunction and age-related pathology in rodents. Specifically, infusion of the serum protein albumin into the young rodent brain (mimicking BBB leakiness) induced astrocytic TGFβ signaling and an aged brain phenotype including aberrant electrocorticographic activity, vulnerability to seizures, and cognitive impairment. Furthermore, conditional genetic knockdown of astrocytic TGFβ receptors or pharmacological inhibition of TGFβ signaling reversed these symptomatic outcomes in aged mice. Last, we found that this same signaling pathway is activated in aging human subjects with BBB dysfunction. Our study identifies dysfunction in the neurovascular unit as one of the earliest triggers of neurological aging and demonstrates that the aging brain may retain considerable latent capacity, which can be revitalized by therapeutic inhibition of TGFβ signaling.

Knowledge of the normal and abnormal imaging appearances of the thyroid gland is essential for appropriate identification and diagnosis of thyroid lesions. Thyroid nodules are often detected incidentally at computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and positron emission tomography; however, ultrasonography (US) is the most commonly used imaging modality for characterization of these nodules. US characteristics that increase the likelihood of malignancy in a thyroid nodule include microcalcifications, solid composition, and central vascularity. Nuclear scintigraphy is commonly used for evaluation of physiologic thyroid function and for identification of metabolically active and inactive nodules. When fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) of a lesion is indicated based on clinical and radiologic features, appropriate US-guided biopsy technique and careful cytologic analysis are crucial for making the diagnosis. FNAB and core biopsy are the two percutaneous techniques used to obtain a specimen, with the latter technique being indicated following nondiagnostic or indeterminate FNAB. Specimen adequacy and diagnostic accuracy vary due to several factors, including location of aspiration and biopsy technique used. The radiologist must have a basic knowledge of thyroid disease, be familiar with specimen processing, and recognize the cytologic and radiologic appearances of thyroid lesions, all of which will facilitate the management of these lesions. Online supplemental material is available for this article.

The cardiovascular outcomes challenge examined the predictive accuracy of 10 diabetes models in estimating hard outcomes in 2 recent cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) and whether recalibration can be used to improve replication. Methods: Participating groups were asked to reproduce the results of the Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program. Calibration was performed and additional analyses assessed model ability to replicate absolute event rates, hazard ratios (HRs), and the generalizability of calibration across CVOTs within a drug class. Results: Ten groups submitted results. Models underestimated treatment effects (ie, HRs) using uncalibrated models for both trials. Calibration to the placebo arm of EMPA-REG OUTCOME greatly improved the prediction of event rates in the placebo, but less so in the active comparator arm. Calibrating to both arms of EMPA-REG OUTCOME individually enabled replication of the observed outcomes. Using EMPA-REG OUTCOME-calibrated models to predict CANVAS Program outcomes was an improvement over uncalibrated models but failed to capture treatment effects adequately. Applying canagliflozin HRs directly provided the best fit. Conclusions: The Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge demonstrated that commonly used risk equations were generally unable to capture recent CVOT treatment effects but that calibration of the risk equations can improve predictive accuracy. Although calibration serves as a practical approach to improve predictive accuracy for CVOT outcomes, it does not extrapolate generally to other settings, time horizons, and comparators. New methods and/or new risk equations for capturing these CV benefits are needed.

Background: EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering) assessed the impact of once-weekly exenatide 2 mg versus placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, while aiming for glycemic equipoise. Consequently, greater drop-in of open-label glucose-lowering medications occurred in the placebo group. Accordingly, we explored the potential effects of their unbalanced use on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke, and all-cause mortality (ACM), given that some of these agents are cardioprotective. Methods: Cox hazard models were performed by randomized treatment for drug classes where >5% open-label drop-in glucose-lowering medication occurred, and for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs; 3.0%) using three methodologies: drop-in visit right censoring, inverse probability for treatment weighting (IPTW), and applying drug class risk reductions. Results: Baseline glucose-lowering medications for the 14 752 EXSCEL participants (73.1% with previous cardiovascular disease) did not differ between treatment groups. During median 3.2 years follow-up, open-label drop-in occurred in 33.4% of participants, more frequently with placebo than exenatide (38.1% versus 28.8%), with metformin (6.1% versus 4.9%), sulfonylurea (8.7% versus 6.9%), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (10.6% versus 7.5%), SGLT-2i (10.3% versus 8.1%), GLP-1 RA (3.4% versus 2.4%), and insulin (13.8% versus 9.4%). The MACE effect size was not altered meaningfully by right censoring, but the favorable HR for exenatide became nominally significant in the sulfonylurea and any glucose-lowering medication groups, while the ACM HR and p-values were essentially unchanged. IPTW decreased the MACE HR from 0.91 ( P =0.061) to 0.85 ( P =0.008) and the ACM HR from 0.86 ( P =0.016) to 0.81 ( P =0.012). Application of literature-derived risk reductions showed no meaningful changes in MACE or ACM HRs or P values, although simulations of substantially greater use of drop-in cardioprotective glucose-lowering agents demonstrated blunting of signal detection. Conclusions: EXSCEL-observed HRs for MACE and ACM remained robust after right censoring or application of literature-derived risk reductions, but the exenatide versus placebo MACE effect size and statistical significance were increased by IPTW. Effects of open-label drop-in cardioprotective medications need to be considered carefully when designing, conducting, and analyzing cardiovascular outcome trials of glucose-lowering agents under the premise of glycemic equipoise. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT01144338.

Increases in serum calcitonin, a tumor marker for medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), have been associated with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist use in some preclinical studies. We report calcitonin changes in exenatide-treated and placebo-administered participants and MTC incidence in the EXenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) and consider the impact of within-trial calcitonin monitoring. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSEXSCEL participants were randomized 1:1 to once-weekly exenatide 2 mg or placebo. Serum calcitonin was measured at baseline (with trial medication discontinued if >40 ng/L) and annually thereafter (with trial medication discontinued if ‡50 ng/L). Median calcitonin concentrations were calculated at each time point, and thyroid malignancies were collected prospectively. Data regarding follow-up after an elevated calcitonin were collected retrospectively. RESULTSAt baseline, 52 (30 exenatide and 22 placebo) participants had calcitonin >40 ng/L, and during follow-up an additional 23 participants (15 exenatide and 8 placebo) had calcitonin ‡50 ng/L in the intention-to-treat population. Median calcitonin concentrations were similar between treatment groups at baseline with no increase over time. Confirmed MTC occurred in three participants (2 exenatide and 1 placebo), all of whom had significantly elevated baseline calcitonin values (413, 422, and 655 ng/L). CONCLUSIONSDuring a median 3.2 years' follow-up, no change in serum calcitonin was seen with exenatide therapy. The three confirmed cases of MTC all occurred in participants with markedly elevated baseline calcitonin levels, measured prior to trial medication administration. Regular calcitonin monitoring identified no additional cases of MTC, suggesting no benefit of routine calcitonin monitoring during exenatide treatment.

We report a case of synchronous primary colonic adenocarcinoma and malignant mesothelioma. A 61-year-old male presented with a six-month history of fatigue and weight loss. An abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan showed a 5.8 cm partially obstructing mass in the cecum with ascites and peritoneal thickening. A biopsy of the large mass showed an adenocarcinoma. Because the patient was clinically thought to be a T4 colon carcinoma with peritoneal metastatic lesions (M1), prior to initiating chemotherapy, a debulking right hemicolectomy was performed. Resection of the colon and ileum revealed a T3N0 colonic mucinous adenocarcinoma and concurrent diffuse malignant peritoneal mesothelioma. Presenting synchronous colonic and peritoneal mesothelial primary malignancies are exceedingly rare but must be considered to prevent incorrect clinical staging.

Background Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models. Methods Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences. Results Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (−0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models ( P = 0.049). Conclusions Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions. Highlights The findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs). There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.