Family and Domestic violence (FDV) is a global problem with significant social, economic, and health consequences for victims including increased health care costs, mental trauma, and social stigmatization. In Australia, the estimated annual cost of FDV is $22 billion, with one woman being murdered by a current or former partner every week. Despite this, tools that can predict future FDV based on the features of the person of interest (POI) and victim are lacking. The New South Wales Police Force attends thousands of FDV events each year and records details as fixed fields (e.g., demographic information for individuals involved in the event) and as text narratives which describe abuse types, victim injuries, threats, including the mental health status for POIs and victims. This information within the narratives is mostly untapped for research and reporting purposes. After applying a text mining methodology to extract information from 492,393 FDV event narratives (abuse types, victim injuries, mental illness mentions), we linked these characteristics with the respective fixed fields and with actual mental health diagnoses obtained from the NSW Ministry of Health for the same cohort to form a comprehensive FDV dataset. These data were input into five deep learning models (MLP, LSTM, Bi-LSTM, Bi-GRU, BERT) to predict three FDV offense types (“hands-on,” “hands-off,” “Apprehended Domestic Violence Order (ADVO) breach”). The transformer model with BERT embeddings returned the best performance (69.00% accuracy; 66.76% ROC) for “ADVO breach” in a multilabel classification setup while the binary classification setup generated similar results. “Hands-off” offenses proved the hardest offense type to predict (60.72% accuracy; 57.86% ROC using BERT) but showed potential to improve with fine-tuning of binary classification setups. “Hands-on” offenses benefitted least from the contextual information gained through BERT embeddings in which MLP with categorical embeddings outperformed it in three out of four metrics (65.95% accuracy; 78.03% F1-score; 70.00% precision). The encouraging results indicate that future FDV offenses can be predicted using deep learning on a large corpus of police and health data. Incorporating additional data sources will likely increase the performance which can assist those working on FDV and law enforcement to improve outcomes and better manage FDV events.
Background To better understand domestic violence, data sources from multiple sectors such as police, justice, health, and welfare are needed. Linking police data to data collections from other agencies could provide unique insights and promote an all-of-government response to domestic violence. The New South Wales Police Force attends domestic violence events and records information in the form of both structured data and a free-text narrative, with the latter shown to be a rich source of information on the mental health status of persons of interest (POIs) and victims, abuse types, and sustained injuries. Objective This study aims to examine the concordance (ie, matching) between mental illness mentions extracted from the police’s event narratives and mental health diagnoses from hospital and emergency department records. Methods We applied a rule-based text mining method on 416,441 domestic violence police event narratives between December 2005 and January 2016 to identify mental illness mentions for POIs and victims. Using different window periods (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) before and after a domestic violence event, we linked the extracted mental illness mentions of victims and POIs to clinical records from the Emergency Department Data Collection and the Admitted Patient Data Collection in New South Wales, Australia using a unique identifier for each individual in the same cohort. Results Using a 2-year window period (ie, 12 months before and after the domestic violence event), less than 1% (3020/416,441, 0.73%) of events had a mental illness mention and also a corresponding hospital record. About 16% of domestic violence events for both POIs (382/2395, 15.95%) and victims (101/631, 16.01%) had an agreement between hospital records and police narrative mentions of mental illness. A total of 51,025/416,441 (12.25%) events for POIs and 14,802/416,441 (3.55%) events for victims had mental illness mentions in their narratives but no hospital record. Only 841 events for POIs and 919 events for victims had a documented hospital record within 48 hours of the domestic violence event. Conclusions Our findings suggest that current surveillance systems used to report on domestic violence may be enhanced by accessing rich information (ie, mental illness) contained in police text narratives, made available for both POIs and victims through the application of text mining. Additional insights can be gained by linkage to other health and welfare data collections.
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