Objective To investigate the effect of systematic screening for risk factors for ischaemic heart disease followed by repeated lifestyle counselling on the 10 year development of ischaemic heart disease at a population level.Design Randomised controlled community based trial.

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ObjectivesTo investigate whether associations of smoking with depression and anxiety are likely to be causal, using a Mendelian randomisation approach.DesignMendelian randomisation meta-analyses using a genetic variant (rs16969968/rs1051730) as a proxy for smoking heaviness, and observational meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress.ParticipantsCurrent, former and never smokers of European ancestry aged ≥16 years from 25 studies in the Consortium for Causal Analysis Research in Tobacco and Alcohol (CARTA).Primary outcome measuresBinary definitions of depression, anxiety and psychological distress assessed by clinical interview, symptom scales or self-reported recall of clinician diagnosis.ResultsThe analytic sample included up to 58 176 never smokers, 37 428 former smokers and 32 028 current smokers (total N=127 632). In observational analyses, current smokers had 1.85 times greater odds of depression (95% CI 1.65 to 2.07), 1.71 times greater odds of anxiety (95% CI 1.54 to 1.90) and 1.69 times greater odds of psychological distress (95% CI 1.56 to 1.83) than never smokers. Former smokers also had greater odds of depression, anxiety and psychological distress than never smokers. There was evidence for positive associations of smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress (ORs per cigarette per day: 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04) and 1.02 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.03) respectively). In Mendelian randomisation analyses, there was no strong evidence that the minor allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with depression (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05), anxiety (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.07) or psychological distress (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.06) in current smokers. Results were similar for former smokers.ConclusionsFindings from Mendelian randomisation analyses do not support a causal role of smoking heaviness in the development of depression and anxiety.

Background Smoking is an important cardiovascular disease risk factor, but the mechanisms linking smoking to blood pressure are poorly understood. Methods and Results Data on 141,317 participants (62,666 never, 40,669 former, 37,982 current smokers) from 23 population-based studies were included in observational and Mendelian randomisation (MR) meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), hypertension, and resting heart rate. For the MR analyses, a genetic variant rs16969968/rs1051730 was used as a proxy for smoking heaviness in current smokers. In observational analyses, current as compared with never smoking was associated with lower SBP, DBP, and lower hypertension risk, but with higher resting heart rate. In observational analyses amongst current smokers, one cigarette/day higher level of smoking heaviness was associated with higher (0.21 beats/minute; 95% CI 0.19; 0.24) resting heart rate, and slightly higher DBP (0.05 mmHg; 95% CI 0.02; 0.08) and SBP (0.08 mmHg; 95% CI 0.03; 0.13). However, in MR analyses amongst current smokers, while each smoking increasing allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with higher resting heart rate (0.36 beats/minute/allele; 95% CI 0.18; 0.54), there was no strong association with DBP, SBP, or hypertension. This would suggest a 7 beats/minute higher heart rate in those who smoke 20 cigarettes/day. Conclusions This MR meta-analysis supports a causal association of smoking heaviness with higher level of resting heart rate, but not with blood pressure. These findings suggest that part of the cardiovascular risk of smoking may operate through increasing resting heart rate.

The results support the conclusion that increasing BMI is causally related to higher prevalence of asthma and decreased lung function, but not with hay fever or biomarkers of allergy.

ObjectivesTo investigate whether tumour necrosis factor alpha inhibitors (TNFis) are associated with an increased risk of neuroinflammatory diseases among patients with arthritic diseases.MethodsCohorts of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA, n=25 796), psoriatic arthritis (PsA, n=8586) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS, n=9527) who initiated a TNFi treatment year 2000–2017 were identified from nationwide clinical rheumatology registers in Sweden and Denmark. Information on demyelinating disease and inflammatory neuropathy diagnoses was retrieved from prospective linkage to National Patients Register. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate HRs and 95% CI comparing TNFi exposed and non-exposed, by disease and country.ResultsAmong 111 455 patients with RA, we identified 270 (Sweden) and 51 (Denmark) events (all types of neuroinflammatory diseases combined), corresponding to crude incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) of 0.37 (Sweden) and 0.39 (Denmark) in TNFi-treated patients vs 0.39 (Sweden) and 0.28 (Denmark) in unexposed patients, and an age-sex-calendar-period-adjusted HR (95% CI) of 0.97 (0.72 to 1.33) (Sweden) and 1.45 (0.74 to 2.81) (Denmark) in TNFi exposed compared with non-exposed patients. For a total of 64 065 AS/PsA patients, the corresponding numbers were: 196 and 32 events, crude incidence rates of 0.59 and 0.87 in TNFi-treated patients vs 0.40 and 0.19 in unexposed patients, and HRs of 1.50 (1.07 to 2.11) and 3.41 (1.30 to 8.96), for Sweden and Denmark, respectively. For multiple sclerosis, the patterns of HRs were similar.ConclusionsUse of TNFi in AS/PsA, but not in RA, was associated with increased risk of incident neuroinflammatory disease, though the absolute risk was below one in 1000 patients/year.

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Observational studies on smoking and risk of hay fever and asthma have shown inconsistent results. However, observational studies may be biased by confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants as markers of exposures to examine causal effects. We examined the causal effect of smoking on hay fever and asthma by using the smoking-associated single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs16969968/rs1051730. We included 231,020 participants from 22 population-based studies. Observational analyses showed that current vs never smokers had lower risk of hay fever (odds ratio (OR) = 0·68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0·61, 0·76; P < 0·001) and allergic sensitization (OR = 0·74, 95% CI: 0·64, 0·86; P < 0·001), but similar asthma risk (OR = 1·00, 95% CI: 0·91, 1·09; P = 0·967). Mendelian randomization analyses in current smokers showed a slightly lower risk of hay fever (OR = 0·958, 95% CI: 0·920, 0·998; P = 0·041), a lower risk of allergic sensitization (OR = 0·92, 95% CI: 0·84, 1·02; P = 0·117), but higher risk of asthma (OR = 1·06, 95% CI: 1·01, 1·11; P = 0·020) per smoking-increasing allele. Our results suggest that smoking may be causally related to a higher risk of asthma and a slightly lower risk of hay fever. However, the adverse events associated with smoking limit its clinical significance.