We examine whether firms decrease tax reserves to meet analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts in the period prior to FIN 48, and whether that behavior changed following FIN 48. We use analysts’ forecasts of pretax and after‐tax income to impute premanaged earnings, or earnings before any tax manipulation. Pre‐FIN 48, we observe that firms reduce their tax reserves (i.e., increase income) when premanaged earnings are below analysts’ forecasts. Specifically, 78 percent of firm‐quarters that would have missed the analyst forecast if not for the tax reserve decrease, meet that target when the decrease is included. Furthermore, we find a significant positive association between the decrease in tax reserves and the deviation of premanaged earnings from analysts’ forecasts. In contrast, post‐FIN 48, we find no evidence that firms use changes in tax reserves to manage earnings to meet analysts’ forecasts. Thus, our results suggest that FIN 48 has, at least initially, curtailed firms’ use of tax reserves to manage earnings.

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We investigate whether management's decision regarding the recognition of the valuation allowance (VA) for deferred tax assets provides incremental information about the persistence of accounting losses. We introduce a classification scheme that assigns loss firm‐years into three categories based on whether management appears to have recognized a material change in the VA, and whether or not the firm has positive taxable income (e.g., a net operating loss). The results of our study show that our tax categories contain information about the persistence of accounting losses over the following three years beyond variables previously identified to predict loss persistence. This incremental information is consistent with management using private information about the firm's future prospects in setting the VA. Finally, we find that investors’ pricing of the VA varies with the saliency of the tax signal and the information environment of the firm.

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This study empirically examines whether deferred taxes provide incremental information about future tax payments and explores whether the relationship is affected by whether and when the deferred tax accounts reverse. The analysis provides evidence that while deferred taxes do provide incremental information about future tax payments, the magnitude of the information is small. Further, consistent with theoretical predictions (Guenther and Sansing 2000, 2004; Dotan 2003) the analysis demonstrates there is an asymmetrical association between deferred taxes and future tax payments. For instance, deferred taxes associated with temporary differences that are included in GAAP income prior to taxable income are associated with future tax payments. In contrast, deferred taxes associated with temporary differences that are included in GAAP income after taxable income are not associated with future tax payments. Finally, the analysis provides evidence that growth in the deferred tax balances does not defer future tax payments. Data Availability: The data are available from public sources.