The gastrointestinal tracts of mammals are colonized by hundreds of microbial species that contribute to health, including colonization resistance against intestinal pathogens1. Many antibiotics destroy intestinal microbial communities and increase susceptibility to intestinal pathogens2. Among these, Clostridium difficile, a major cause of antibiotic-induced diarrhea, greatly increases morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients3. Which intestinal bacteria provide resistance to C. difficile infection and their in vivo inhibitory mechanisms remain unclear. By treating mice with different antibiotics that result in distinct microbiota changes and lead to varied susceptibility to C. difficile, we correlated loss of specific bacterial taxa with development of infection. Mathematical modeling augmented by microbiota analyses of hospitalized patients identified resistance-associated bacteria common to mice and humans. Using these platforms, we determined that Clostridium scindens, a bile acid 7-dehydroxylating intestinal bacterium, is associated with resistance to C. difficile infection and, upon administration, enhances resistance to infection in a secondary bile acid-dependent fashion. Using a workflow involving mouse models, clinical studies, metagenomic analyses and mathematical modeling, we identified a probiotic candidate that corrects a clinically relevant microbiome deficiency. These findings have implications for rational design of targeted antimicrobials as well as microbiome-based diagnostics and therapeutics for individuals at risk for C. difficile infection.

The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka–Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli.

Predicting dynamics of host-microbial ecosystems is crucial for the rational design of bacteriotherapies. We present MDSINE, a suite of algorithms for inferring dynamical systems models from microbiome time-series data and predicting temporal behaviors. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that MDSINE significantly outperforms the existing inference method. We then show MDSINE’s utility on two new gnotobiotic mice datasets, investigating infection with Clostridium difficile and an immune-modulatory probiotic. Using these datasets, we demonstrate new capabilities, including accurate forecasting of microbial dynamics, prediction of stable sub-communities that inhibit pathogen growth, and identification of bacteria most crucial to community integrity in response to perturbations.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13059-016-0980-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Maximum entropy-based inference methods have been successfully used to infer direct interactions from biological datasets such as gene expression data or sequence ensembles. Here, we review undirected pairwise maximum-entropy probability models in two categories of data types, those with continuous and categorical random variables. As a concrete example, we present recently developed inference methods from the field of protein contact prediction and show that a basic set of assumptions leads to similar solution strategies for inferring the model parameters in both variable types. These parameters reflect interactive couplings between observables, which can be used to predict global properties of the biological system. Such methods are applicable to the important problems of protein 3-D structure prediction and association of gene–gene networks, and they enable potential applications to the analysis of gene alteration patterns and to protein design.

Highlights d Introduces a new experimental method for protein structure determination called 3Dseq d Experimental evolution generates hundreds of thousands of functional sequences d Analysis of sequence co-variation patterns yields accurate residue interactions d Molecular dynamics with interaction constraints produces correct protein folds

Manipulation of the gut microbiota holds great promise for the treatment of diseases. However, a major challenge is the identification of therapeutically potent microbial consortia that colonize the host effectively while maximizing immunologic outcome. Here, we propose a novel workflow to select optimal immune-inducing consortia from microbiome compositicon and immune effectors measurements. Using published and newly generated microbial and regulatory T-cell (Treg) data from germ-free mice, we estimate the contributions of twelve Clostridia strains with known immune-modulating effect to Treg induction. Combining this with a longitudinal data-constrained ecological model, we predict the ability of every attainable and ecologically stable subconsortium in promoting Treg activation and rank them by the Treg Induction Score (TrIS). Experimental validation of selected consortia indicates a strong and statistically significant correlation between predicted TrIS and measured Treg. We argue that computational indexes, such as the TrIS, are valuable tools for the systematic selection of immune-modulating bacteriotherapeutics.

Cancer cells have genetic alterations that often directly affect intracellular protein signaling processes allowing them to bypass control mechanisms for cell death, growth and division. Cancer drugs targeting these alterations often work initially, but resistance is common. Combinations of targeted drugs may overcome or prevent resistance, but their selection requires context-specific knowledge of signaling pathways including complex interactions such as feedback loops and crosstalk. To infer quantitative pathway models, we collected a rich dataset on a melanoma cell line: Following perturbation with 54 drug combinations, we measured 124 (phospho-)protein levels and phenotypic response (cell growth, apoptosis) in a time series from 10 minutes to 67 hours. From these data, we trained time-resolved mathematical models that capture molecular interactions and the coupling of molecular levels to cellular phenotype, which in turn reveal the main direct or indirect molecular responses to each drug. Systematic model simulations identified novel combinations of drugs predicted to reduce the survival of melanoma cells, with partial experimental verification. This particular application of perturbation biology demonstrates the potential impact of combining time-resolved data with modeling for the discovery of new combinations of cancer drugs.

Background: While eukaryotes primarily evolve by duplication-divergence expansion (and reduction) of their own gene repertoire with only rare horizontal gene transfers, prokaryotes appear to evolve under both gene duplications and widespread horizontal gene transfers over long evolutionary time scales. But, the evolutionary origin of this striking difference in the importance of horizontal gene transfers remains by and large a mystery.