ABSTRACT." The theory of formal disciplinenthat is, the view that instruction in abstract rule
When people know how an event turned out, they are usually unable to reproduce the judgments they would have made without outcome knowledge. Furthermore, they are unaware of their inability to recapture their pre-outcome state of mind. This tendency to overestimate what they would have known without the outcome knowledge is called "hindsight." An experiment explored the moderating effects of the type of cause to which the outcome was attributed on the magnitude of the hindsight effect. When the outcome was attributed to unforeseeable "chance" factors, such as an unexpected storm or an earthquake, the hindsight effect was virtually eliminated. When no causal attribution was provided or when a plausible "deterministic" cause (human skill or lack of skill) was cited, subjects' judgments showed sizable hindsight effects. These. findings are interpreted as supporting Fischhoff's "creeping determinism" hypothesis and as providing evidence that the hindsight effect is a by-product of adaptive learning from feedback.
This paper reports the results of a 1997-98 survey designed to explore the careers of the University of Michigan Law School's minority graduates from the classes of 1970 through 1996, and of a random sample of Michigan Law School's white alumni who graduated during the same years. It is to date the most detailed quantitative exploration of how minority students fare after they graduate from law school and enter law practice or related careers. The results reveal that almost all of Michigan Law School's minority graduates pass a bar exam and go on to have careers that appear successful by conventional measures. In particular, the survey indicates that minority graduates (defined so as to include graduates with African American, Latino, and Native American backgrounds) are no less successful than white graduates, whether success is measured by the log of current income, self-reported satisfaction, or an index of service contributions. Also, although an admissions index that combines LSAT scores and undergraduate grade-point average is a significant predictor of law school grades, it does not predict career success on any of our three outcome measures. Michigan is a highly selective law school; our results may not generalize to people who have graduated from other law schools.Richard 0. Lempert is Francis A. Allen professor of law and professor of sociology, University of Michigan. David L. Chambers is Wade H. McCree Jr. professor of law, University of Michigan. Terry K. Adams is senior research associate, University of Michigan Law School, and senior survey specialist, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan. Work on this study was supported by the Cook Funds of the University of Michigan Law School and by the Russell Sage Foundation's appointment of Richard Lempert as a Visiting Scholar for the academic year 1998-99. We would like to thank Katherine Barnes and Lisa Kahraman for their help with the statistical analyses, Karl Monsma for his statistical advice, and Karin Garver for the many drafts of the manuscript and the tables that she typed. Too many people advised us on the design of the study or commented on earlier versions of this manuscript for us to thank them all by name, but we are very grateful to them, and the study and this paper have been improved substantially due to their criticisms.© 2000 American Bar Foundation.0897-6546/00/2502-395$01.00 395 LAW AND SOCIAL INQUIRYAs teachers, we enjoy hearing news of our former students. They call us on the phone from time to time. They seek us out at reunions. They tell us about themselves and about other classmates we both knew. They also appear in our alumni magazines and occasionally in the newspapers. From all this, we develop a general impression of what our students are doing with their lives-a memory bank of upbeat stories of achievement and satisfaction and disheartening stories of overwork and disenchantment. Many of us develop such general impressions and stories about groups of our studentsour women graduates, our graduates of color.Unt...
This article considers methodological issues arising from recent efforts to provide field tests of eyewitness identification procedures. We focus in particular on a field study (Mecklenburg 2006) that examined the ''double blind, sequential'' technique, and consider the implications of an acknowledged methodological confound in the study. We explain why the confound has severe consequences for assessing the real-world implications of this study.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.