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Geological observations require that episodic slip on the Alpine fault averages to a long-term displacement rate of 2-3 cm/yr. Patterns of seismicity and geodetic strain suggest the fault is locked above a depth of 6-12 km and will probably fail during an earthquake. High pore-fluid pressures in the deeper fault zone are inferred from low seismic P-wave velocity and high electrical conductivity in central South Island, and may limit the seismogenic zone east of the Alpine fault to depths as shallow as 6 km. A simplified dynamic rupture model suggests an episode of aseismic slip at depth may not inhibit later propagation of a fully developed earthquake rupture. Although it is difficult to resolve surface displacement during an ancient earthquake from displacements that occurred in the months and years that immediately surround the event, sufficient data exist to evaluate the extent of the last three Alpine fault ruptures: the 1717 AD event is inferred to have ruptured a 300-500 km length of fault; the 1620 AD event ruptured 200-300 km; and the 1430 AD event ruptured 350-600 km. The geologically estimated moment magnitudes are 7.9 ± 0.3, 7.6 ± 0.3, and 7.9 ± 0.4, respectively. We conclude that large earthquakes (M w >7) on the Alpine fault will almost certainly occur in future, and it is realistic to expect some great earthquakes (M w ≥8).

Active fault traces are a surface expression of permanent deformation that accommodates the motion within and between adjacent tectonic plates. We present an updated national-scale model for active faulting in New Zealand, summarize the current understanding of fault kinematics in 15 tectonic domains, and undertake some brief kinematic analysis including comparison of fault slip rates with GPS velocities. The model contains 635 simplified faults with tabulated parameters of their attitude (dip and dip-direction) and kinematics (sense of movement and rake of slip vector), net slip rate and a quality code. Fault density and slip rates are, as expected, highest along the central plate boundary zone, but the model is undoubtedly incomplete, particularly in rapidly eroding mountainous areas and submarine areas with limited data. The active fault data presented are of value to a range of kinematic, active fault and seismic hazard studies.

Large earthquakes in mountain regions commonly trigger extensive landsliding and are important drivers of erosion, but the contribution of this landsliding to long-term erosion rates and seismic hazard remains poorly understood. Here we show that lake sediments record postseismic landscape response as a sequence of turbidites that can be used to quantify erosion related to large (moment magnitude, M w > 7.6) earthquakes on the Alpine fault, New Zealand. Alpine fault earthquakes caused a threefold increase in sediment fl ux over the ~50 yr duration of each postseismic landscape response; this represents considerable delayed hazard following earthquake-induced strong ground motion. Earthquakes were responsible for 27% of the sediment fl ux from the lake catchment over the past 1100 yr, leading us to conclude that Alpine fault earthquakes are one of the most important drivers of erosion in the range front of the Southern Alps.