The Harmonic Balance method is an attractive solution for computing periodic responses and can be an alternative to time domain methods, at a reduced computational cost. The current paper investigates using a Harmonic Balance method for simulating limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty. The Harmonic Balance method is used in conjunction with a nonintrusive polynomial-chaos approach to propagate variability and is validated against Monte Carlo analysis. Results show the potential of the approach for a range of nonlinear dynamical systems, including a full wing configuration exhibiting supercritical and subcritical bifurcations, at a fraction of the cost of performing time domain simulations. Prediction of Limit Cycle Oscillations under Uncertainty using a Harmonic Balance MethodRichard Hayes, Simão P. Marques 1, School of Mechanical and Aerospace EngineeringQueen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK, BT9 5AH AbstractThe Harmonic Balance method is an attractive solution for computing periodic responses and can be an alternative to time domain methods, at a reduced computational cost. The current paper investigates using a Harmonic Balance method for simulating limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty. The Harmonic Balance method is used in conjunction with a nonintrusive polynomial-chaos approach to propagate variability and is validated against Monte Carlo analysis. Results show the potential of the approach for a range of nonlinear dynamical systems, including a full wing configuration exhibiting supercritical and subcritical bifurcations, at a fraction of the cost of performing time domain simulations.

Modal analysis is a popular approach used in structural dynamic and aeroelastic problems due to its efficiency. The response of a structure is composed of the sum of orthogonal eigenvectors or modeshapes and corresponding modal frequencies. This paper investigates the importance of modeshapes on the aeroelastic response of the Goland wing subject to structural uncertainties. The wing undergoes limit cycle oscillations (LCO) as a result of the inclusion of polynomial stiffness nonlinearities. The LCO computations are performed using a Harmonic Balance approach for speed, the modal properties of the system are extracted from MSC NASTRAN. Variability in both the wing's structure and the store centre of gravity location is investigated in two cases:-supercritical and subcritical type LCOs. Results show that the LCO behaviour is only sensitive to change in modeshapes when the nature of the modes are changing significantly.

The assimilation of discrete data points with model predictions can be used to achieve a reduction in the uncertainty of the model input parameters, which generate accurate predictions. The problem investigated here involves the prediction of limit-cycle oscillations using a High-Dimensional Harmonic Balance (HDHB) method. The efficiency of the HDHB method is exploited to enable calibration of structural input parameters using a Bayesian inference technique. Markov-chain Monte Carlo is employed to sample the posterior distributions. Parameter estimation is carried out on a pitch/plunge aerofoil and two Goland wing configurations. In all cases, significant refinement was achieved in the distribution of possible structural parameters allowing better predictions of their true deterministic values. Additionally, a comparison of two approaches to extract the true values from the posterior distributions is presented.