Introduction Background and RationalePeatlands are organic-rich wetlands that provide important ecosystem services at a range of spatial scales (Kimmel & Mander, 2010). Local hydrological setting is of central importance in determining the characteristics and functions of these ecosystems (Siegel & Glaser, 2006). Peatlands are characterized by waterlogged, anoxic conditions that suppress microbial decomposition, causing carbon to accumulate slowly but persistently over thousands of years in the form of partially decomposed plant detritus (Yu et al., 2010). Peatlands cover less than 3% of the Earth's land surface (Xu et al., 2018b) yet they are thought to store between approximately 500 and 600 Gt (5-6 × 10 17 g) of carbon (Müller & Joos, 2020;Page et al., 2011;Yu, 2011Yu, , 2012, equivalent to between approximately one sixth and one third of global soil carbon (Scharlemann et al., 2014). As well as being long-term carbon sinks, peatlands also emit greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane. Peatland greenhouse gas budgets are highly sensitive to surface wetness, and even modest changes in water-table depths can cause peatlands to switch between being net sinks and sources of greenhouse gases when measured in CO 2 -equivalent units (Evans et al., 2021;Günther et al., 2020). In some locations, water that drains from peat

Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost-climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils, and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0-39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socioeconomic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. Main

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