The response of sea surface temperature (SST) to tropical cyclones is studied using gridded SST data and global cyclone tracks from the period 1981-2008. A compositing approach is used whereby temperature time series before and after cyclone occurrence at individual cyclone track positions are averaged together.Results reveal a variability of several days in the time of maximum cooling with respect to cyclone passage, with the most common occurrence 1 day after cyclone passage. When compositing is carried out relative to the day of maximum cooling, the global average response to cyclone passage is a local minimum SST anomaly of 20.98C. The recovery of the ocean to cyclone passage is generally quite rapid with 44% of the data points recovering to climatological SST within 5 days, and 88% of the data points recovering within 30 days. Although differences exist between the mean results from the separate tropical cyclone basins, they are in broad agreement with the global mean results. Storm intensity and translation speed affect both the size of the SST response and the recovery time.Cyclones occurring in the first half of the cyclone season disrupt the seasonal warming trend, which is not resumed until 20-30 days after cyclone passage. Conversely, cyclone occurrences in the later half of the season bring about a 0.58C temperature drop from which the ocean does not recover due to the seasonal cooling cycle.

Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency under anthropogenic climate change are examined for 13 global models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using the Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) TC-detection method developed by the authors in earlier papers. The method detects large-scale conditions within which TCs form. It was developed and tuned in atmospheric reanalysis data and then applied without change to the climate models to ensure model and detector independence. Changes in TC frequency are determined by comparing TC detections in the CMIP5 historical runs (1970–2000) with high emission scenario (representative concentration pathway 8.5) future runs (2070–2100). A number of the models project increases in frequency of higher-latitude tropical cyclones in the late twenty-first century. Inspection reveals that these high-latitude systems were subtropical in origin and are thus eliminated from the analysis using an objective classification technique. TC detections in 8 of the 13 models reproduce observed TC formation numbers and geographic distributions reasonably well, with annual numbers within ±50% of observations. TC detections in the remaining five models are particularly low in number (10%–28% of observed). The eight models with a reasonable TC climatology all project decreases in global TC frequency varying between 7% and 28%. Large intermodel and interbasin variations in magnitude and sign are present, with the greatest variations in the Northern Hemisphere basins. These results are consistent with results from earlier-generation climate models and thus confirm the robustness of coupled model projections of globally reduced TC frequency.

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall over the Australian continent is studied using observations from 41 TC seasons 1969/70 to 2009/10. A total of 318 storms, whose centers either crossed the coastline or were located within 500 km of the coast, are considered in this study. Mean seasonal (November/April) contributions by TCs to the total rainfall are largest along the northern coastline from 120°–150°E. However, the percentage contributions by TCs are greatest west of 125°E, with mean coastal values of 20%–40% and inland values of approximately 20%. Farther east, percentages near the coast are only around 10%, and even lower inland. Inland penetration by TC rainfall is generally greatest over western portions of the continent, associated with greater inland penetration of TC tracks. During the peak of the TC season (January–March), TCs contribute around 40% to the rainfall total of coastal regions west of 120°E, while during December, TCs contribute approximately 60%–70% to the total rainfall west of 115°E. Rain from TCs varies sharply between TC seasons, with some longitude bands receiving no TC rain during some seasons. For the 110°–115°E longitude band the TC rain contribution is quite inconsistent, varying interannually from 0%–86%. This has an impact on water supplies, with storage dams falling to low levels during some years, while filling to capacity during TC-related flood events in other years. These large interannual variations and their impacts underline why it is important to understand TC rainfall characteristics over the Australian continent.

No abstract

No abstract

The analyzed value of sea surface temperature (SST) is examined for all global cases of tropical cyclone formation within 358 latitude of the equator over the period 1981-2008. It is found that 98.3% of formations occur at SST values exceeding 25.58C. This practical threshold is relatively insensitive to the exact value of maximum wind speed used to define formation. The threshold is sensitive, however, to short-term variations in SST during development. By expanding the time period such that thresholds are calculated based on the maximum SST during the 48-h period leading to genesis, it is found that 99.5% of cyclone formations occur above 25.58C. It is also found that tropical cyclones form over a narrow temperature range with 90.4% forming over SSTs between 27.58 and 30.58C when the 48-h period is considered. Without consideration of the 48-h period, an SST threshold of 25.58C is representative with less than 2% of formations occurring below this value. When the 48-h period is considered, 26.58C is the equivalent threshold. The response to warming of the global oceans is also examined. Dividing the 27-yr dataset into an earlier versus a later 13.5-yr period, positive but small changes (10.28C) occur in the mean formation temperature. There is no detectable shift of the threshold temperature toward a higher value.

A novel approach to tropical cyclone (TC) detection in coarse-resolution numerical model data is introduced and assessed. This approach differs from traditional detectors in two main ways. First, it was developed and tuned using 20 yr of ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data, rather than using climate model data. This ensures that the detector is independent of any climate models to which it will later be applied. Second, only relatively large-scale parameters resolvable in climate models are included, in order to minimize any grid-resolution dependence on parameter thresholds. This approach is taken in an attempt to construct a unified TC detection procedure applicable to all climate models without the need for any further tuning or adjustment.Unlike traditional detectors that seek to identify TCs directly, the authors' method seeks to identify conditions favorable for TC formation. Favorable TC formation regions at the center of closed circulations in the lower troposphere to the midtroposphere are identified using a low-deformation vorticity parameter. Additional relative and specific humidity thresholds are applied to ensure the thermodynamic environment is favorable, and a vertical wind shear threshold is applied to eliminate storms in a destructive shear environment. A further requirement is that thresholds for all parameters must be satisfied for at least 48 h before a TC is deemed to have developed.A thorough assessment of the detector performance is provided. It is demonstrated that the method reproduces realistic TC genesis frequency and spatial distributions in the ERA-Interim data. Application of the detector to four climate models is presented in a companion paper.

Studies of tropical cyclone (TC) formation from tropical waves have shown that TC formation requires a wave-relative quasi-closed circulation: the "marsupial pouch" concept. This results in a layerwise nearly contained region of atmosphere in which the modification of moisture, temperature and vorticity profiles by convective and boundary layer processes occurs undisturbed. The pouch concept is further developed in this paper. TCs develop near the centre of the pouch where the flow is in near solid body rotation. A reference-frame independent parameter is introduced that effectively measures the level of solid-body rotation in the lower troposphere. The parameter is the product of a normalized Okubo-Weiss parameter and absolute vorticity (OWZ). <br><br> Using 20 yr of ERA-interim reanalysis data and the IBTrACS global TC database, it is shown 95% of TCs including, but not limited to, those forming in tropical waves are associated with enhanced levels of OWZ on both the 850 and 500 hPa pressure levels at the time of TC declaration, while 90% show enhanced OWZ for at least 24 h prior to declaration. This result prompts the question of whether the pouch concept extends beyond wave-type formation to all TC formations world-wide. <br><br> Combining the OWZ with a low vertical shear requirement and lower troposphere relative humidity thresholds, an imminent genesis parameter is defined. The parameter includes only relatively large-scale fluid properties that are resolved by coarse grid model data (>150 km), which means it can be used as a TC detector for climate model applications. It is also useful as a cyclogenesis diagnostic in higher resolution models such as real-time global forecast models