Species' potential distribution modelling is the process of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements for a species and extrapolating these requirements into a geographical region. The importance of being able to predict the distribution of species is currently highlighted by issues like global climate change, public health problems caused by disease vectors, anthropogenic impacts that can lead to massive species extinction, among other challenges. There are several computational approaches that can be used to generate potential distribution models, each achieving optimal results under different conditions. However, the existing software packages available for this purpose typically implement a single algorithm, and each software package presents a new learning curve to the user. Whenever new software is developed for species' potential distribution modelling, significant duplication of effort results because many feature requirements are shared between the different packages. Additionally, data preparation and comparison between algorithms becomes difficult when using separate software applications, since each application has different data input and output capabilities. This paper describes a generic approach for building a single computing framework capable of handling different data formats and multiple algorithms that can be used in potential distribution modelling. The ideas described in this paper have been implemented in a free and open source software package called openModeller. The main concepts of species' potential distribution modelling are also explained and an example use case illustrates potential distribution maps generated by the framework. Geoinformatica (2011) 15:111-135

Lifemapper (http://www.lifemapper.org) is a predictive electronic atlas of the Earth's biological biodiversity. Using a screensaver version of the GARP genetic algorithm for modeling species distributions, Lifemapper harnesses vast computing resources through 'volunteers' PCs similar to SETI@home, to develop models of the distribution of the worlds fauna and flora. The Lifemapper project's primary goal is to provide an up to date and comprehensive database of species maps and prediction models (i.e. a fauna and flora of the world) using available data on species' locations. The models are developed using specimen data from distributed museum collections and an archive of geospatial environmental correlates. A central server maintains a dynamic archive of species maps and models for research, outreach to the general community, and feedback to museum data providers. This * Corresponding author

An important aspect of tropical medicine is analysis of geographic aspects of risk of disease transmission, which for lack of detailed public health data must often be reduced to an understanding of the distributions of critical species such as vectors and reservoirs. We examine the applicability of a new technique, ecological niche modeling, to the challenge of understanding distributions of such species based on municipalities in the state of São Paulo in which a group of 5 Lutzomyia sandfly species have been recorded. The technique, when tested based on independent occurrence data, yielded highly significant predictions of species' distributions; minimum sample sizes for effective predictions were around 40 municipalities.

Aim  To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue‐winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited. Location  Historical distribution of the blue‐winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina. Methods  We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue‐winged macaw, based on point‐occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre‐1950 and post‐1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions. Results  Differences between predicted distributions of the blue‐winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species’ original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species’ range tended to show improvement for the species. Main conclusions  Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue‐winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).