Vultures provide critical ecosystem services, yet populations of many species have collapsed worldwide. We present the first estimates of a 30-year PanAfrican vulture decline, confirming that declines have occurred on a scale broadly comparable with those seen in Asia, where the ecological, economic, and human costs are already documented. Populations of eight species we assessed had declined by an average of 62%; seven had declined at a rate of 80% or more over three generations. Of these, at least six appear to qualify for uplisting to Critically Endangered. Africa's vultures are facing a range of specific threats, the most significant of which are poisoning and trade in traditional medicines, which together accounted for 90% of reported deaths. We recommend that national governments urgently enact and enforce legislation to strictly regulate the sale and use of pesticides and poisons, to eliminate the illegal trade in vulture body parts, as food or medicine, and to minimize mortality caused by power lines and wind turbines.

The removal of rinderpest had cascading effects on herbivore populations, fire, tree density, and even ecosystem carbon in the Serengeti ecosystem of East Africa.

Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the annual migration of the Serengeti wildebeest, but few studies have compared distribution patterns with environmental drivers. We used a rainfall-driven model of grass dynamics and wildebeest movement to generate simulated monthly wildebeest distributions, with wildebeest movement decisions depending on 14 candidate models of adaptive movement in response to resource availability. We used information-theoretic approaches to compare the fits of simulated and observed monthly distribution patterns at two spatial scales over a 3-year period. Models that included the intake rate and nitrogen (N) concentration of green grass and the suppressive effect of tree cover on grass biomass provided the best model fits at both spatial scales tested, suggesting that digestive constraints and protein requirements may play key roles in driving migratory behavior. The emergence of a migration was predicted to be dependent on the ability of the wildebeest to track changes in resource abundance at relatively large scales (>80-100 km). When movement decisions are based solely on local resource availability, the wildebeest fail to migrate across the ecosystem. Our study highlights the potentially key role of strong and countervailing seasonally driven rainfall and fertility gradients--a consistent feature of African savanna ecosystems--as drivers of long-distance seasonal migrations in ungulates.

Ecological partnerships, or mutualisms, are globally widespread, sustaining agriculture and biodiversity. Mutualisms evolve through the matching of functional traits between partners, such as tongue length of pollinators and flower tube depth of plants. Long-tongued pollinators specialize on flowers with deep corolla tubes, whereas shorter-tongued pollinators generalize across tube lengths. Losses of functional guilds because of shifts in global climate may disrupt mutualisms and threaten partner species. We found that in two alpine bumble bee species, decreases in tongue length have evolved over 40 years. Co-occurring flowers have not become shallower, nor are small-flowered plants more prolific. We argue that declining floral resources because of warmer summers have favored generalist foraging, leading to a mismatch between shorter-tongued bees and the longer-tubed plants they once pollinated.

Vertebrate herbivores and fire are known to be important drivers of vegetation dynamics in African savannas. It is of particular importance to understand how changes in herbivore population density, especially of elephants, and fire frequency will affect the amount of tree cover in savanna ecosystems, given the critical importance of tree cover for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human welfare. We developed a spatially realistic simulation model of vegetation, fire, and dominant herbivore dynamics, tailored to the Serengeti ecosystem of east Africa. The model includes key processes such as tree-grass competition, fire, and resource-based density dependence and adaptive movement by herbivores. We used the model to project the ecosystem 100 years into the future from its present state under different fire, browsing (determined by elephant population density), and grazing (with and without wildebeest present) regimes. The model produced the following key results: (1) elephants and fire exert synergistic negative effects on woody cover; when grazers are excluded, the impact of fire and the strength of the elephant-fire interaction increase; (2) at present population densities of 0.15 elephants/km2, the total amount of woody cover is predicted to remain stable in the absence of fire, but the mature tree population is predicted to decline regardless of the fire regime; without grazers present to mitigate the effects of fire, the size structure of the tree population will become dominated by seedlings and mature trees; (3) spatial heterogeneity in tree cover varies unimodally with elephant population density; fire increases heterogeneity in the presence of grazers and decreases it in their absence; (4) the marked rainfall gradient in the Serengeti directly affects the pattern of tree cover in the absence of fire; with fire, the woody cover is determined by the grazing patterns of the migratory wildebeest, which are partly rainfall driven. Our results show that, in open migratory ecosystems such as the Serengeti, grazers can modulate the impact of fire and the strength of the interaction between fire and browsers by altering fuel loads and responding to the distribution of grass across the landscape, and thus exert strong effects on spatial patterns of tree cover.

Fire, elephants, and frost are important disturbance factors in many African savannas, but the relative magnitude of their effects on vegetation and their interactions have not been quantified. Understanding how disturbance shapes savanna structure and composition is critical for predicting changes in tree cover and for formulating management and conservation policy. A simulation model was used to investigate how the disturbance regime determines vegetation structure and composition in a mixed Kalahari sand woodland savanna in western Zimbabwe. The model consisted of submodels for tree growth, tree damage caused by disturbance, mortality, and recruitment that were parameterized from field data collected over a two-year period. The model predicts that, under the current disturbance regime, tree basal area in the study area will decline by two-thirds over the next two decades and become dominated by species unpalatable to elephants. Changes in the disturbance regime are predicted to greatly modify vegetation structure and community composition. Elephants are the primary drivers of woodland change in this community at present-day population densities, and their impacts are exacerbated by the effects of fire and frost. Frost, in particular, does not play an important role when acting independently but appears to be a key secondary factor in the presence of elephants and/or fire. Unlike fire and frost, which cannot suppress the woodland phase on their own in this ecosystem, elephants can independently drive the vegetation to the scrub phase. The results suggest that elephant and fire management may be critical for the persistence of certain woodland communities within dry-season elephant habitats in the eastern Kalahari, particularly those dominated by Brachystegia spiciformis and other palatable species.

This study compared elephant use of woody vegetation on termite mounds with surrounding woodlands in western Zimbabwe. Twelve sites consisting of paired plots on termite mounds and in woodlands were selected. At each site, soil and vegetation samples (leaf and stem) were collected for chemical analysis. Both soil and plant samples were analyzed for calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and phosphorus, and plant samples were also analyzed for crude protein concentration. Two indices of elephant feeding damage were computed: the median number of stems and branches removed per plant, and the mass of stems and branches removed by elephants per unit area. Termite mound soils had higher concentrations of all elements tested than soils from woodlands, and termite mounds differed from woodland plots in terms of plant species composition. Trees growing on termite mounds had higher concentrations of all nutrients except sodium and crude protein, and were subjected to more intense feeding by elephants than trees from the surrounding vegetation matrix. Termite mounds may play an important role in determining food availability and spatial feeding patterns by elephants and other herbivores.

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