WOFOST model (version 7.1.2) was used to study the impacts of elevated thermal environment on kharif rice at Kalyani situated in lower Gangetic region of West Bengal. The model was calibrated and validated with experimental data collected during kharif season of 2010 to 2013. The simulated yield data was well matched with actual data. The sensitivity analysis for effect of temperature change on crop maturity showed that if temperature was increased by 10C and 20C the maturity period was delayed by 3 and 7 days respectively. The range of simulated yield was 3150 kgha-1 to 5046 kg ha-1 whereas the actual yield in the experimental field ranged from 2907 kg ha-1 to 5495 kg ha-1. The model shows 96 per cent accuracy to predict rice yield with R2 value 0.82 and RMSE value 337.87. It was also observed that the sowing should be done before 15th July to obtain higher yield of kharif rice in the study region.
Elevated thermal condition caused by global warming is a threat to major crops grown in India as well as other Asian and tropical countries, as it negatively affects the crop phenology, growth, dry-matter production and yield. The present research work aims to assess the impact of elevated temperature on rice production using three crop growth simulation models, namely, DSSAT, WOFOST and InfoCrop. Field experimental data-set of rice for seven years was used for model calibration and validation. After validation, three models were used to predict the yield under 1, 2 and30C rise over normal maximum and minimum temperature. The models were also used to assess the thermal impact on leaf area indices (LAI) and crop duration. It was observed that the crop duration was shortened by almost 10 days for 30C enhancement over normal and the LAI was also reduced considerably. The wet-season rice yield may be reduced by 8.7% for 10C, 12.5% for20C and 21.1% for 30C increase of normal temperature. Use of combination of more than one crop models can predict the climate change impact on rice production more reliably.
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