The Philippines is moving towards a more sustainable public transport system by introducing a public utility vehicle (PUV) modernization program with electric jeepneys (e-jeepneys) and modernized diesel jeepneys. Despite its potential to address problems related to air pollution, traffic congestion, dependence on fuel imports, and carbon emissions, transport groups show resistance to the adoption of the government program due to costs and investment risk issues. This study aims to guide transport operators in making investment decisions between the modernized diesel jeepney and the e-jeepney fleet. Applying the real options approach (ROA), this research evaluates option values and optimal investment strategies under uncertainties in diesel prices, jeepney base fare price, electricity prices, and government subsidy. The optimization results reveal a better opportunity to invest in the e-jeepney fleet in all scenarios analyzed. Results also show a more optimal decision strategy to invest in the e-jeepney immediately in the current business environment, as delaying or postponing investment may incur opportunity losses. To make the adoption of the e-jeepney more attractive to transport operators, this study further suggests government actions to increase the amount of subsidy and base fares, establish public charging stations, and continue efforts to rely on cleaner, cheaper, and renewable sources of electricity.
In developing countries, particularly in rural areas, long periods of power outages are experienced as the electricity grid is technically or economically unfeasible. As solar photovoltaic (PV) is the most potential and suitable source of renewable energy for these areas, this paper analyzes the economic viability of its integration in different types of residential buildings. Applying real optionsapproach under uncertainty in electricity prices, this study compares the attractiveness of adopting solar PV over continuing electricity from the grid focusing on various investment payment schemes including (i) full payment, (ii) distributed payment for 5 or 10 years without a down payment, and (iii) distributed payment for 5 or 10 years with 20% or 40% down payment. Applying the model with the case of the Philippines, the resultswith the full payment strategy obtain option values of USD 6888 for building type-I, USD 15349 for building type-II, USD 21204 for building type-III, USD 27870 for building type-IV, and USD 34251 for building type-V. These option values increase by 21.6% and 22.5% with distributed payment scheme to a 5- or 10-year period and increase by 5% and 13% for distributed payment with 40% and 20% down payment. These option values decrease with investments at later periods. Contrary to the conventional option valuation results of an optimal decision to wait, our findings show the otherwise as earlier investment reduces the risk of opportunity loss from delaying the adoption of solar PV. Among the payment schemes analyzed, the distribution of PV system cost in a 10-year installment periodwithout down payment shows to be the most optimal investment strategy which may encourage lower-income and risk-averse consumers whose decision to adopt solar PV is affected by cost barriers, economic status, and household income. The study suggests the government, particularly in developing countries, to support the integration of own-use solar PV in buildings through incentives and subsidies, as well as financial institutions to offer more affordable terms of payment that encourages low to medium income households to adopt solar PV.Further, this will not only augment the energy deficiency in these countries but also support the global aspirations of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and its adverse effects through gradually shifting to renewable sources of energy.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 11th Int. Conf. on Applied Energy (ICAE2019).
This paper applies the real option approach (ROA) to analyze the economic viability of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) investment in the Philippines. From the point of view of a household (HH) owner, this approach evaluates the option values and optimal timing of investment to compare the attractiveness of investing in solar PV over continuing to use electricity from the grid. This further analyzes how various investment schemes and electricity prices uncertainty affect investment decisions. Results find that residential solar PV investment is profitable for all HH types investigated and that earlier investment in solar PV reduces the risk of opportunity loss from postponing the investment. Among the investment schemes analyzed, the distribution of solar PV cost in 5-or 10-year period shows to be the best investment strategy. The results are robust with various HH types investigated and with sensitivity in electricity prices.
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