Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.

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raits, broadly speaking, are measurable attributes or characteristics of organisms. Traits related to function (for example, leaf size, body mass, tooth size or growth form) are often used to understand how organisms interact with their environment and other species via key vital rates such as survival, development and reproduction 1-5. Trait-based approaches have long been used in systematics and macroevolution to delineate taxa and reconstruct ancestral morphology and function 6-8 and to link candidate genes to phentoypes 9-11. The broad appeal of the trait concept is its ability to facilitate quantitative comparisons of biological form and function. Traits also allow us to mechanistically link organismal responses to abiotic and biotic factors with measurements that are, in principle, relatively easy to capture across large numbers of individuals. For example, appropriately chosen and defined traits can help identify lineages that share similar life-history strategies for a given environmental regime 12,13. Documenting and understanding the diversity and composition of traits in ecosystems directly contributes to our understanding of organismal and ecosystem processes, functionality, productivity and resilience in the face of environmental change 14-19. In light of the multiple applications of trait data to address challenges of global significance (Box 1), a central question remains: How can we most effectively advance the synthesis of trait data within and across disciplines? In recent decades, the collection, compilation and availability of trait data for a variety of organisms has accelerated rapidly. Substantial trait databases now exist for plants 20-23 , reptiles 24,25 , invertebrates 23,26-29 , fish 30,31 , corals 32 , birds 23,33,34 , amphibians 35 , mammals 23,36-38 and fungi 23,39 , and parallel efforts are no doubt underway for other taxa. Though considerable effort has been made to quantify traits for some groups (for example, Fig. 1), substantial work remains. To develop and test theory in biodiversity science, much greater effort is needed to fill in trait data across the Tree of Life by combining and integrating data and trait collection efforts.