In order to characterize the landslide susceptibility in the central zone of Guerrero State in Mexico, a spatial model has been designed and implemented, which automatically generates cartography. Conditioning factors as geomorphological, geological, and anthropic variables were considered, and as a detonating factor, the effect of the accumulated rain. The use of an inventory map of landslides that occurred in the past (IL) was also necessary, which was produced by an unsupervised detection method. Before the design of the model, an analysis of the contribution of each factor, related to the landslide inventory map, was performed by the Jackknife test. The designed model consists of a susceptibility index (SI) calculated pixel by pixel by the accumulation of the individual contribution of each factor, and the final index allows the susceptibility cartography to slide in the study area. The evaluation of the obtained map was performed by applying an analysis of the frequency ratio (FR) graphic, and an analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was developed. Studies like this can help different safeguarding institutions, locating the areas where there is a greater vulnerability according to the considered factors, and integrating disaster attention management or prevention plans.
Los procesos de remoción en masa constituyen procesos geológicos recurrentes y representan una amenaza latente en el Estado de Guerrero, por su vínculo con eventos hidrometeorológicos extraordinarios. En varios estudios que caracterizan estos procesos, se aplican técnicas de percepción remota y la información se integra a través de los Sistemas de Información Geográfica. El modelo de susceptibilidad a procesos de remoción en masa, incluyó la interpretación de factores físicos que intervienen en dichos procesos, los cuales fueron caracterizados por distintos mapas temáticos. La generación final del modelo consistió en la acumulación final de los aportes individuales de cada factor (Recondo, 2000; Hervas y Barredo, 2001; Hervas, et al., 2002), el cual representó una zonificación por índice de susceptibilidad; la corroboración de los datos se realizó a través de un inventario de deslizamientos, generado a través de interpretación de imágenes online, aplicando las herramientas de Google Earth. Los resultados indican que el modelo de susceptibilidad a procesos de remoción en masa, permite identificar y categorizar efectivamente las zonas de riesgo, además se determinó que los factores litológicos, estructurales, topográficos y los eventos hidrometeorológicos de septiembre de 2013, fueron los que provocaron la incidencia de la mayoría de los deslizamientos registrados.
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