Previous work on vulnerability prediction assume that predictive models are trained with respect to perfect labelling information (includes labels from future, as yet undiscovered vulnerabilities). In this paper we present results from a comprehensive empirical study of 1,898 real-world vulnerabilities reported in 74 releases of three security-critical open source systems (Linux Kernel, OpenSSL and Wiresark). Our study investigates the effectiveness of three previously proposed vulnerability prediction approaches, in two settings: with and without the unrealistic labelling assumption. The results reveal that the unrealistic labelling assumption can profoundly mislead the scientific conclusions drawn; suggesting highly effective and deployable prediction results vanish when we fully account for realistically available labelling in the experimental methodology. More precisely, MCC mean values of predictive effectiveness drop from 0.77, 0.65 and 0.43 to 0.08, 0.22, 0.10 for Linux Kernel, OpenSSL and Wiresark, respectively. Similar results are also obtained for precision, recall and other assessments of predictive efficacy. The community therefore needs to upgrade experimental and empirical methodology for vulnerability prediction evaluation and development to ensure robust and actionable scientific findings. CCS CONCEPTS • Software and its engineering → Software defect analysis.
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities, which beyond its global economic impact has created some deep social and psychological tensions within populations. While the adopted mitigation measures (including the lockdown) have generally proven useful, policymakers are now facing a critical question: how and when to lift the mitigation measures? A carefully-planned exit strategy is indeed necessary to recover from the pandemic without risking a new outbreak. Classically, exit strategies rely on mathematical modeling to predict the effect of public health interventions. Such models are unfortunately known to be sensitive to some key parameters, which are usually set based on rules-of-thumb. In this paper, we propose to augment epidemiological forecasting with actual data-driven models that will learn to fine-tune predictions for different contexts (e.g., per country). We have therefore built a pandemic simulation and forecasting toolkit that combines a deep learning estimation of the epidemiological parameters of the disease in order to predict the cases and deaths, and a genetic algorithm component searching for optimal trade-offs/policies between constraints and objectives set by decision-makers. Replaying pandemic evolution in various countries, we experimentally show that our approach yields predictions with much lower error rates than pure epidemiological models in 75% of the cases and achieves a 95% R2 score when the learning is transferred and tested on unseen countries. When used for forecasting, this approach provides actionable insights into the impact of individual measures and strategies.
Label Explanation ACTION Keyword performing an action on the SUT capable of modifying its state. ASSERTION Keyword verifying that a predicate is true at a specific point of test execution CONTROLFOW Keyword allowing to modify the control flow of the test execution. GETTER Keyword allowing to extract an element from the SUT. LOGGING Keyword dumping logs during execution. SYNC Keyword relating to the synchronization between the SUT and the tests. USER Keyword created by a user.
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