SHORT SUMMARYWe estimate a simultaneous equations model of Chinese markets for wheat, rice, corn, pork, and poultry. Elasticities for consumption, feed demand, production, stocks demand, and foreign trade fall within the range of results from previous studies, and are reasonable magnitudes. China has market power in the trade for all commodities.
ABSTRACTWe estimate a simultaneous equations model of Chinese agricultural markets which treats China as a large trading country, and is built around supply-utilization tables for Chinese wheat, rice, corn, pork, and poultry meat. Elasticities are estimated for consumption, feed demand, production, stocks demand, and foreign demand or supply faced in China. While commodity models are estimated using ITSUR in a single commodity simultaneous equations framework, an LA/AIDS model of food demand is estimated using ITSUR as a system covering all commodities. Results fall within the wide range of results from previous studies, and are quite reasonable magnitudes. China has market power in the trade for all five commodities under study.
"We use the error component two-stage least squares estimation method to examine the effects of the Sino-U.S. exchange rate and the weighted exchange rate between the United States and other Asian countries on the Sino-U.S. trade patterns. Our study suggests that both the exchange rates have contributed to China's increased trade surplus with the United States. China has imported intermediate goods from the Asian countries, produced final goods using its cheap labor, and exported those goods to the United States. This is especially true for bilateral trade of high-tech manufacturing goods. Our study also reveals that the U.S. bilateral trade balance could improve if China appreciates its currency (Yuan) against the U.S. dollar." ("JEL" F14, F10, F19) Copyright 2007 Western Economic Association International.
Japan is a traditional net importer of food products in general and meat products in particular. Japanese meat imports come from a few countries thus making Japan potentially very sensitive to the swings in one or a few bilateral exchange rates. One of the key contributions of this article is the use of commodity (meats in this case) imports weighted exchange rates in the analysis. The standard practice in previous international agricultural trade studies related to either exchange rate pass-through or pricing to market was to use the aggregate trade weighted exchange rates usually provided by the Central Bank authorities or sources. Beef and poultry import prices indicate partial exchange rate pass-through while import prices of pork indicate zero exchange rate pass-through, primarily due to gate price policy system applied to pork imports. In terms of competitiveness, these results suggest relatively more competitive markets among poultry importing firms, somewhat competitive markets among beef importing firms, while competitiveness of pork importing firms could not be assessed due to existing import policies.
We investigate the factors behind the growing U.S. trade deficit in consumer-oriented agricultural products by using reliable panel data and an empirical trade model derived from international trade theory. The results indicate that per capita income in the United States appears to be the most important determinant for the growing U.S. trade deficit of consumer-oriented agricultural products. An increase in per capita income and trade liberalization in foreign countries would improve the U.S. trade balance. U.S. foreign direct investment abroad in food manufactures and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are found to have negative effects on the U.S. trade balance.
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