Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising 6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe.

Aim An increase in multivoltinism in ectothermic animals has been proposed by several authors as a possible outcome of climate warming, especially in high latitudes. We tested this prediction with large-scale empirical monitoring data for boreal moth communities.Location Finland, northern Europe. MethodsOur data set comprised observations of multivoltine species made in the Finnish moth monitoring scheme 'Nocturna' trap sites during the period 1993-2006 along an exceptionally long latitudinal gradient of 1000 km. To compare recent changes in moth multivoltinism with a longer time period, we gathered older time series of moth observations from five locations. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to detect possible temporal and geographical trends in the annual occurrence of multivoltinism. We also identified areas where the recent changes in multivoltinism have been greatest. Monthly average temperatures of spring and summer periods and annual sum of growing degree days above 5°C (GDD5) were used as explanatory variables to distinguish the main climatic correlates of moth multivoltinism. ResultsWe observed a clear increase in the occurrence of moth multivoltinism during the period 1993-2006. The incidence as well as the recent increase in multivoltinism were highest in southernmost Finland and decreased towards the north. We also detected a weaker, although significantly positive, trend of moth multivoltinism in southern Finland during the period 1963-92, suggesting that this increasing trend might already have begun earlier. The most important climatic correlates for the annual occurrence of moth multivoltinism were the mean summer temperature (periods May-July and June-August) and GDD5, but all the tested climatic variables showed a significant univariate relationship with the occurrence of moth multivoltinism. All climatic variables showed an increasing trend during the period 1993-2006. Main conclusionsThe occurrence of multivoltinism has increased in northern European moth communities during recent decades, apparently as a response to increasing temperatures during the spring and summer seasons. The increase in multivoltinism was greatest in the southernmost parts of Finland, whereas in the northern landscapes recent warming has triggered multivoltinism in only relatively few moth species.

Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are a known consequence of climate warming contributing to regional community change, less is known about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance of different climatic variables prompting such shifts varies with changing climate remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades of data for 1,478 species of birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along a 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change. While species turnover among decades was limited, the relative position of species within their climatic niche shifted substantially. A greater proportion of species responded to climatic change at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger. These diverging climate imprints restructure a full biome, making it difficult to generalize biodiversity responses and raising concerns about ecosystem integrity in the face of accelerating climate change.

Ecological systems have naturally high interannual variance in phenology. Component species have presumably evolved to maintain appropriate phenologies under historical climates, but cases of inappropriate phenology can be expected with climate change. Understanding controls on phenology permits predictions of ecological responses to climate change. We studied phenological control systems in Lepidoptera by analyzing flight times recorded at a network of sites in Finland. We evaluated the strength and form of controls from temperature and photoperiod, and tested for geographic variation within species. Temperature controls on phenology were evident in 51% of 112 study species and for a third of those thermal controls appear to be modified by photoperiodic cues. For 24% of the total, photoperiod by itself emerged as the most likely control system. Species with thermal control alone should be most immediately responsive in phenology to climate warming, but variably so depending upon the minimum temperature at which appreciable development occurs and the thermal responsiveness of development rate. Photoperiodic modification of thermal controls constrains phenotypic responses in phenologies to climate change, but can evolve to permit local adaptation. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the phenological structure of the Finnish Lepidoptera community in ways that are predictable with knowledge of the proximate physiological controls. Understanding how phenological controls in Lepidoptera compare to that of their host plants and enemies could permit general inferences regarding climatic effects on mid- to high-latitude ecosystems.

Aim Biodiversity is currently undergoing rapid restructuring across the globe. However, the nature of biodiversity change is not well understood, as community‐level changes may hide differential responses in individual population trajectories. Here, we quantify spatio‐temporal community and stability dynamics using a long‐term high‐quality moth monitoring dataset. Location Finland, Northern Europe. Time period 1993–2012. Major taxa studied Nocturnal moths (Lepidoptera). Methods We quantified patterns of change in species richness, total abundance, dominance and temporal variability at different organizational levels over a 20 year period and along a latitudinal gradient of 1,100 km. We used mixed‐effects and linear models to quantify temporal trends for the different community and stability metrics and to test for latitudinal (or longitudinal) effects. Results We found contrasting patterns for different community metrics, and strong latitudinal patterns. While total moth abundance has declined, species richness has simultaneously increased over the study period, but with rates accelerating with latitude. In addition, we revealed a latitudinal pattern in temporal variability—the northernmost locations exhibited higher variability over time, as quantified by both metrics of richness and aggregated species population trends. Main conclusions When combined, our findings likely reflect an influx of species expanding their ranges poleward in response to warming. The overall decline in abundance and the latitudinal effect on temporal variability highlight potentially severe consequences of global change for community structure and integrity across high‐latitude regions. Importantly, our results underscore that increases in species richness may be paralleled by a loss of individuals, which in turn might affect higher trophic levels. Our findings suggest that the ongoing global species redistribution is affecting both community structure and stability over time, leading to compounded and partly opposing effects of global change depending on which biodiversity dimension we focus on.