Climate change will lead to higher temperatures, increased precipitation and runoff, as well as more intense and frequent extreme weather events in Norway. More extreme rainfall and increased runoff are historically associated with higher concentrations of indicator bacteria, colour and turbidity in raw water of Norwegian waterworks. Regional information about the risk for drinking water deterioration by the end of the century is essential for evaluating potential treatment capacity upgrades at the waterworks. We combined locally downscaled future climate scenarios with historical associations between weather/runoff and water quality from a wide spread of waterworks in Norway. With continued climate change, we estimate higher concentrations of water quality indicators of raw water by the end of the century. The water quality is estimated to deteriorate mainly due to the projected increase in rainfall, and mainly in the Western and Northern parts of Norway. While large waterworks seem to be able to adapt to future conditions, the degradation of raw water quality may cause future challenges for the treatment processes at smaller waterworks. Combining these results with further studies of treatment effects and microbial risk assessments is needed to ensure sufficient treatment capacities of the raw water in the future.
clearer understanding of the trends in the development of extreme weather. The studies are based on both historical data and available future scenarios (projections) from climate models. Compared to previous studies, we calculated changes in climate variables that are particularly important in relation to nature hazards. Overall, the analyses document an increase in frequency as well as intensity of both precipitation and wind. Results of projections show that the observed changes will continue throughout this century. We could also identify large regional differences, with some areas experiencing, e.g., a reduction in 30 the intensity of heavy rainfall events. However, most of the country will experience the opposite, i.e., both increased intensity and increased frequency of heavy precipitation. Our analyses show that at least 27 per cent of Norwegian roads and 31 per cent of railroads are exposed to rock fall and snow avalanches hazards. The project has also assessed relationships between different parameters that can affect the likelihood of debris flows. Variables such as terrain slope and size of watercourses are important, while local climate, which varies widely in Norway, determines threshold values for rainfall that can trigger debris 35 flows.Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi
<p>With increasing temperatures in Norway, the possibility of heat waves are assumed to increase. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) is testing ways to monitor heat waves&#160; and possibly implement an operational warning system for heat waves in the future. For this work, it was necessary to assess the development of observed heat waves in Norway.</p><p>Heat waves were computed from daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the period 1961-2020, for three example stations and maps. For the stations, time series were assessed. For the maps, an observation-based dataset on a 1&#215;1 km grid was used. The two different normal periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 were also compared.</p><p>The method to qualify a heat wave determines the number of heat waves in a given summer. There are different methods used internationally. MET Norway wants to find a method that works for Norway, and maybe in cooperation with surrounding countries. The last couple of years we have had the same criterias as used in Denmark; the mean value of maximum temperature of three consecutive days &#8805; 28 degrees. In this study we have looked at different methods to qualify a heat wave in Norway, since the Danish method indicated heat waves too frequently, also during the spring. The method for heat waves is based on the maximum and minimum temperature combined. We have looked at different temperature limits and different number of days. For other weather warnings, a 2 years return period is used for a yellow warning. When testing different methods, we found that the mean value of maximum temperature for 5 days &#8805; 28 degrees combined with the mean value of minimum temperature for 5 days &#8805; 16 degrees were likely to occur seldom enough and also give some heat stress to people and nature.</p><p>Climate services has worked together with the forecasting group at MET Norway to propose a method to use for both forecasting and climatology. This summer (2022) the heat wave monitoring system will be tested operationally, and an evaluation is due in the autumn.</p>
Climate change will lead to more extreme weather events in Europe. In Norway, little is known about how this will affect drinking water quality and population's health due to waterborne diseases. The aim of our work was to generate new knowledge on the effect of extreme weather conditions and climate change on drinking water and waterborne disease. In this respect we studied the relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff events, raw and treated water quality, and gastroenteritis consultations in Norway in 2006–2014 to anticipate the risk with changing climate conditions. The main findings are positive associations between extreme weather events and raw water quality, but only few with treated drinking water. Increase in maximum temperature was associated with an increase in risk of disease among all ages and 15–64 years olds for the whole year. Heavy rain and high runoff were associated with a decrease in risk of gastroenteritis for different age groups and time periods throughout the year. No evidence was found that increase in precipitation and runoff trigger increased gastroenteritis outbreaks. Large waterworks in Norway currently seem to manage extreme weather events in preventing waterborne disease. However, with more extreme weather in the future, this may change. Therefore, modelling future climate scenarios is necessary to assess the need for improved water treatment capacity in a future climate.
<p>The extreme weather in 2017 and 2018 served as a wake-up call for the Norwegian agriculture sector. The growth season of 2017 was very wet, whereas 2018 was extraordinarily dry and warm. The weather had major consequences for yields. Many asked themselves how climate change will affect agriculture moving forward, and how we can maintain food production in the face of climate change?&#160;</p><p>In a case study lead by Telemarkforskning and financed by Oslofondet, we investigated how climate change may impact the grain production in the Vestfold and Telemark counties, a main grain production area located in the south-eastern part of Norway.&#160;</p><p>Climate indices were defined in collaboration with local farmers and calculated for historical and projected future climate change in Vestfold and Telemark. The results show that summer temperatures are rising, and that the growth season is expected to increase by about a month towards the middle of the century, compared to the period 1971&#8211;2000. The number of growth degree days increases, too. Precipitation predictions are more uncertain. Towards the middle of the century, a small increase in precipitation is expected in the summer half-year (April to September) in most of the area. However, in grain producing areas most models project reduced precipitation in the summer half-year. Comparing the periods April&#8211;May and August&#8211;September projections indicate that Spring/early Summer will be wetter, and the late Summer drier, moving forward. The number of dry days is projected to decrease in April&#8211;May and increase in August, and opposite for the number of wet days. No matter the development in precipitation, drought risk will increase in the future, because increased temperatures lead to increased evaporation.</p><p>Further analyses based on this study are needed to gain knowledge about future climate change and measures for a more climate robust food production within all productions and regions of the country.&#160;</p>
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