Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering of (most often, seasonally adjusted) quarterly series is analysed. Some of the criticism to the filter are adressed. It is seen that, while filtering strongly affects.autocorrelations, it has little effect on crosscorrelations. It is argued that the criticism that HP filtering induces a spurious cycle in the series is unwarranted. The filter, however, presents two serious drawbacks: First, poor perfor mance at the end periods, due to the size of the revisions in preliminary estimators) and, second, the amount of noise in the cyclical signal, which seriously disturbs its interpretation. We show how the addition of two model-based features (in particular, applying the filter to the series ex tended with proper ARIMA forecasts and backcasts, and using as input to the filter the trend-cycle component instead of the seasonally adjusted series) can considerably improve the filter performance. Throughout the discussion, we use a computationally and analytically convenient alter native derivation of the HP filter, and illustrate the results with an example consisting of 4 Spanish economic indicators.(1) Previously published Working Papers are Hsted in the Banco de Espana pubHcations catalogue.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.