Early life stages of many marine organisms are being challenged by climate change, 35 but little is known about their capacity to tolerate future ocean conditions. Here we 36 investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses of larvae of two 37 commercially important teleost fishes, Sparus aurata (gilthead seabream) and 38 Argyrosomus regius (meagre), after exposure to future predictions of ocean warming (+4 ºC) and acidification (ΔpH=0.5). The combined effect of warming and 40 hypercapnia elicited a decrease in the hatching success (by 26.4 and 14.3% for S. 41 aurata and A. regius, respectively) and larval survival (by half) in both species. The 42 length for newly-hatched larvae was not significantly affected, but a significant 43 effect of hypercapnia was found on larval growth. However, while S. aurata growth 44 was reduced (24.8-36.4% lower), A. regius growth slightly increased (3.2-12.9% 45 higher) under such condition. Under acidification, larvae of both species spent less 46 time swimming, and displayed reduced attack and capture rates of prey. The 47 impact of warming on these behavioural traits was opposite but less evident. While 48 not studied in A. regius, the incidence of body malformations in S. aurata larvae 49 increased significantly (more than tripled) under warmer and hypercapnic 50 conditions. These morphological impairments and behavioural changes are 51 expected to affect larval performance and recruitment success, and further 52 influence the abundance of fish stocks and the population structure of these 53 commercially important fish species. However, given the pace of ocean climate 54 change, it is important not to forget that species may have the opportunity to 55 acclimate and adapt.
In monitoring studies at wind farms, the estimation of bird and bat mortality caused by collision must take into account carcass removal by scavengers or decomposition. In this paper we propose the use of survival analysis techniques to model the time of carcass removal. The proposed method is applied to data collected in ten Portuguese wind farms. We present and compare results obtained from semiparametric and parametric models assuming four main competing lifetime distributions (exponential, Weibull, log-logistic and log-normal). Both homogeneous parametric models and accelerated failure time models were used. The fitted models enabled the estimation of the carcass persistence rates and the calculation of a scavenging Author's personal copy Environ Ecol Stat correction factor for avian mortality estimation. Additionally, we discuss the impact that the distributional assumption can have on parameter estimation. The proposed methodology integrates the survival probability estimation problem with the analysis of covariate effects. Estimation is based on the most suitable model while simultaneously accounting for censored observations, diminishing scavenging rate estimation bias. Additionally, the method establishes a standardized statistical procedure for the analysis of carcass removal time in subsequent studies.
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