Forecasting techniques have received considerable interest from both researchers and academics because of the unique characteristics of businesses and their influence on several areas of the economy. Most academics utilize the autoregressive integrated mov ing average (ARIMA) approach to forecasting the future. However, researchers face challenges, such as analyzing the data and selecting the appropriate ARIMA parameters, especially with large datasets. This study investigates the use of the automatic ARIMA (Auto ARIMA) function for forecasting Brent oil prices. It demonstrates the benefits of using Auto ARIMA over ARIMA for determining the appropriate ARIMA parameters based on measures such as root mean square error ( RMSE ) , mean absolute error ( MAE ) , and aka ike information criterion ( AIC ) without requiring the attention of an expert data scientist as it bypasses several steps needed for manual ARIMA. Auto ARIMA produced an RMSE of 12.5539 and an AIC of 1877.224, which are comparable to the values resulting fr om the manual ARIMA with the help of expert data scientists; thus, it saves analysis time and offers the best model result.
Oil price forecasting has captured the attention of both researchers and academics because of the unique characteristics of crude oil prices and how they have a big impact on a lot of different parts of the economic value of the product. As a result, most academics use a lot of different ways to predict the future. On the other hand, researchers have a hard time because crude oil prices are very unpredictable and can be affected by many different things. This study uses support vector regression (SVR) with technical indicators as a feature to improve the prediction of the monthly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of crude oil. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) measure how well the model is working. The RMSE was 1.5456, the MAE was 1.3219, and the MAPE was 1.9173 in the experiment. The results show that WTI crude oil prices are affected by technical indicators and get good performance that outperforms most other models that can be found.
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