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Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning.Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty | 6587 BRODIE et al.

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Understanding range edges is key to addressing fundamental biogeographic questions about abiotic and biotic drivers of species distributions. Range edges are where colonization and extirpation happen, so their dynamics are also important for natural resource management and conservation. We quantified positions for 153 range edges of marine fishes and invertebrates from three US continental shelf regions using decades of survey data and a spatiotemporal model to account for changes in survey design. We analyzed whether range edges maintained their edge thermal niches-temperature extremes at the range edgeover time. Most range edges (86%) maintained either cold or warm temperature extremes; 73% maintained both. However, the substantial fraction of range edges that altered their thermal niche underscore the multiplicity of relevant drivers. This study suggests that temperate marine species largely maintained their edge thermal niches during rapid change and provides a blueprint for testing temperature tracking of species range edges.

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