The Guerrero seismic gap is presumed to be a major source of seismic and tsunami hazard along the Mexican subduction zone. Until recently, there were limited observations at the shallow portion of the plate interface offshore Guerrero, so we deployed instruments there to better characterize the extent of the seismogenic zone. Here we report the discovery of episodic shallow tremors and potential slow slip events in Guerrero offshore. Their distribution, together with that of repeating earthquakes, seismicity, residual gravity and bathymetry, suggest that a portion of the shallow plate interface in the gap undergoes stable slip. This mechanical condition may not only explain the long return period of large earthquakes inside the gap, but also reveals why the rupture from past M < 8 earthquakes on adjacent megathrust segments did not propagate into the gap to result in much larger events. However, dynamic rupture effects could drive one of these nearby earthquakes to break through the entire Guerrero seismic gap.
The Guerrero seismic gap is presumed to be a major source of seismic and tsunami hazard along the Mexican subduction zone. Until recently, there were limited observations to describe the shallow portion of the plate interface in Guerrero. For this reason, we deployed offshore instrumentation to gain new seismic data and identify the extent of the seismogenic zone inside the Guerrero gap. We discovered episodic shallow tremors and potential slow slip events which, together with repeating earthquakes, seismicity, residual gravity and residual bathymetry suggest that a portion of the shallow plate interface in the Guerrero seismic gap undergoes stable slip. This mechanical condition may not only explain the long return period of large earthquakes with origins inside the Guerrero seismic gap, but also reveal why the rupture from past M<8 earthquakes on adjacent megathrust fault segments did not propagate into the gap to encompass a larger slip area. Nevertheless, a large enough earthquake initiating nearby could rupture through the entire Guerrero seismic gap if driven by dynamic rupture effects.
General characteristics of seismic energy release of thrust earthquakes in Mexico have been reviewed in the past; however, a detailed analysis can contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms that control its distribution along the Guerrero, Mexico, subduction zone. To address it, we obtain the source spectra of the 2012 Mw 7.5 Ometepec‐Pinotepa Nacional, the 2014 Mw 7.2 Papanoa, and the 2018 Mw 7.2 Pinotepa Nacional earthquakes, as well as of their M≥4.0 aftershocks to estimate their seismic moment M0 and radiated seismic energy ES. The first and the last sequences occurred at the southern border of the Guerrero seismic gap, a region where no significant earthquake (M>7.0) has occurred at least in the last century; whereas the second sequence was located at the northern edge of the same seismic gap. The mean value of the log of radiated seismic energy scaled with the seismic moment, log(e˜)=log(ES/M0), for this set of earthquakes is −5.05±0.25. We classify the analyzed events into four regions, two in the southern edge of the gap and two in the northern one. At both ends, there is one region that shows regular values of log(e˜) (−4.64±0.25 and −4.62±0.25), whereas the other one shows low values of log(e˜) (−5.40±0.25 and −5.55±0.25) that could be related to a possible slow‐rupture behavior. These last regions are identified near the trench at southern Guerrero coast and immediately outside the northern end of the seismic gap. The distribution of log(e˜) is spatially heterogeneous along the trench, suggesting variations on the shear strength and coupling at the interface.
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