To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most comprehensive tools available for this task and will be used to interpret observations of temperate rocky exoplanets. Due to parameterization choices made in GCMs, they can produce different results, even for the same planet. Employing four widely used exoplanetary GCMs-ExoCAM, LMD-G, ROCKE-3D, and the UMwe continue the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison by modeling aquaplanet climates of TRAPPIST-1e with a moist atmosphere dominated by either nitrogen or carbon dioxide. Although the GCMs disagree on the details of the simulated regimes, they all predict a temperate climate with neither of the two cases pushed out of the habitable state. Nevertheless, the intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature is nonnegligible: 14 K and 24 K in the nitrogen-and carbon dioxide-dominated case, respectively. We find substantial intermodel differences in moist variables, with the smallest amount of clouds in LMD-Generic and the largest in ROCKE-3D. ExoCAM predicts the warmest climate for both cases and thus has the highest water vapor content and the largest amount and variability of cloud condensate. The UM tends to produce colder conditions, especially in the nitrogen-dominated case due to a strong negative cloud radiative effect on the day side of TRAPPIST-1e. Our study highlights various biases of GCMs and emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on one model to understand exoplanet climates.

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N 2 -dominated (CO 2 -dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Planetary climates (2184); Exoplanet atmospheres (487); Habitable planets (695); Atmospheric circulation (112); Extrasolar rocky planets (511); Hydrodynamical simulations (767); M dwarf stars (982); Radiative transfer (1335)

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-1e and, subsequently, its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (Part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (Part II). Here we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5σ detection of CO 2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO 2 . That number can vary by 41%-56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of ∼50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the intertransit spectral variability. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs, but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely, the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies.